Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew starts the new week with three stats-based picks at Newton Abbot, Redcar and Windsor on Monday, May 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWTON ABBOT 2.43
FORTUNEFAVORSDBOLD (system – Christian Williams, handicap chases of 2m5f+)
Christian Williams does well in handicap chases over the longer trips (2m5f+), scoring with 70 of his 412 such runners (17% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.54 to a £1 level stake at SP. His runners tend to perform better in the latter stages of the peak jumps season and backing the qualifiers from December to May only would have found 51 winners from 232 bets (22% strike-rate) for a profit of £101.46. FORTUNEFAVORSDBOLD was beaten by 40 lengths when seventh of nine at Cheltenham last time but that was in a Class 2 contest, the same grade in which she pulled up at Uttoxeter on her penultimate start. Her chase record in Class 4 company – today’s level – reads F11 (2-3) and she can bounce back.
REDCAR 4.00
DINGLE (system – Julie Camacho, colts/geldings on turf when running fresh)
Julie Camacho does well with colts/geldings on turf who were returning from a break of at least six weeks, scoring with 37 of the 253 (14.6%) since 2013 for a profit of £100.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. Her yard has yet to hit top gear this term but DINGLE, well drawn in stall 2 of 11, looks worth chancing. The six-year-old is 0-12 on turf (four from 16 on the all-weather) but he ran well over course and distance on his latest grass start, finishing a 10-1 fourth of eight and doing best of those to race in the unfavoured centre group.
WINDSOR 5.40
SERGIO PRAISSE (system – Clive Cox, second time out 2yos, quick return, top five finish on debut)
Since the beginning of 2012, Clive Cox has a 13 from 32 record (40.6% strike-rate) with second-time out juveniles who finished in the top five on debut and were returning to the track within a fortnight. Backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £17.98 to a £1 level stake at SP. SERGIO PRAISSE, third of 12 from a poor draw at Leicester on last week’s debut, can open his account.
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