Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Wolverhampton’s evening meeting (the only fixture in Britain today) for two stats-based selections on Monday, December 4th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30
TYGER BAY (system – beaten under claiming jockey when well drawn in Chelmsford handicap last time out)
Chelmsford seems to be the trickiest all-weather track for inexperienced jockeys to master and, since the beginning of March, backing all handicap runners on whom the jockey claimed at least 3lb would have found only 19 winners from 287 bets (6.6% strike-rate) for a huge loss of £176.97 to a £1 level stake at SP. Conversely, horses beaten in Chelmsford handicaps under claiming riders often do well on their next start. Had we backed all those who were well drawn at Chelmsford (defined as stall 6 or lower) we would have won 19 of our 118 bets (since March 1st) for a profit of £67.38 (expected winners = 10.61, A/E = 1.79). TYGER BAY ended up very wide in the straight from his stall 6 berth when only third under an apprentice rider at Chelmsford last time and can go two places better tonight.
WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30
BLUE YONDER (system – Richard Fahey, visored first-time on latest start, recent run)
Richard Fahey does well with runners who wore a first-time visor on their most recent start, regardless of whether the headgear was retained or not. Since the beginning of 2017, those who were returned to the track within 28 days of that first-time visored outing won ten of the 48 starts for a profit of £31.00 to a £1 level stake at SP, with the latest qualifier on the all-weather (Admiral D) scoring at odds of 17-2. BLUE YONDER, runner-up in a first-time visor at Chelmsford on November 11th, is taken to go one better.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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