Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew struck with HERE WE HAVE IT (6-4 from 11-4) on Sunday (his only other selection was 2nd by a neck at 8-1) and he has two more on Monday, December 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
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LINGFIELD 12.12
MOLLY VALENTINE (system – first run after a wind operation, Polytrack, 2-3yos, 5f-7f)
There are three stats that stand out where wind operations are concerned on the all-weather – 1) horses having their first start after the surgery perform better on Polytrack than other surfaces, 2) horses aged two or three out-score their older rivals, and 3) in general, the shorter the distance of the race, the greater the strike-rate. Since wind surgery had to be declared in late January 2018, backing all those aged two or three, running over 5f-7f on Polytrack in Britain, who were having their first start after the procedure would have found 24 winners from 118 bets (20.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £30.11 to a £1 level stake at SP. MOLLY VALENTINE shaped with promise when a 100-1 sixth of 11 in a Newbury maiden back in May and though well held at Newmarket a few weeks later, the subsequent absence and wind operation suggests there was a valid excuse that day. On breeding, she might be better suited to Tapeta than Polytrack but she’s worth chancing to small each-way stakes.
LINGFIELD 1.12
SERGEANT TIBBS (system – Robyn Brisland, very recent outing, all-weather)
SERGEANT TIBBS was very free and keen when a 12-1 fifth of nine after a short break over 6f here last week and might do better now dropping to the minimum trip for the first time in his career. Robyn Brisland has a solid record on the all-weather when running one of his horses between one and seven days since its most recent outing, scoring with 20 of the 76 qualifiers for a profit of £40.42.
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Related
- There is more from Andrew Mount every day on SportsLens.
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