Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
There’s some cracking all-weather action on Good Friday (March 29th) and Andrew has four stats-based picks at Chelmsford, Lingfield and Newcastle. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELMSFORD 1.40
TANAGER (system – January foals in early-season 2yo races)
January foals enjoy an edge over their younger rivals in early-season (March/April) juvenile contests and, since 2016, backing them blind would have found 29 winners from 167 bets (17.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.97 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 21.59, A/E = 1.34). TANAGER is drawn widest of all but could still be worth a small interest in this 5f maiden.
CHELMSFORD 2.15
DARK SIDE PRINCE (system – class barrier)
DARK SIDE PRINCE excels in Class 6 races on the all-weather but usually struggles in a higher grade. His Class 6 record on synthetics reads 231721111341 (6-12) for a profit of £9.75 to a £1 level stake at SP and Chris Dwyer’s veteran, a winner from stall 1 over course and distance last time, has the plum draw again.
NEWCASTLE 2.25
HAVANA BALL (system – Newcastle handicaps, 5f-7f, stall 1)
Plenty of straight-track Newcastle winners come down the stands’ side from high draws but, this winter, the market looks to have over-reacted to this perceived bias. We still get low-drawn winners down the centre of the track and, since May 1st last year, simply backing stall 1 in Newcastle handicaps of 5f-7f would have found 23 winners from 209 bets for a profit of £76.21. HAVANA BALL (stall 1 of 11) finished a close-up 40-1 fourth over course and distance on her debut last November before bolting up at Wolverhampton and her recent 19-1 third of 12 in a Listed race at Chantilly suggests that she can make an impact on her handicap debut.
LINGFIELD 3.15
PONS AELIUS (system – Johnston yard, second run since gelded, all-weather)
The Charlie Johnston-trained PONS AELIUS (stall 1 of 14) has a difficult draw to overcome in this valuable 2m handicap but could still be worth chancing at a likely big price (forecast to start at 12-1). The five-year-old has won five times from 34 career starts but, surprisingly, wasn’t gelded until after the 33rd of them. The gelding operation failed to make an immediate impact – he finished seventh of nine at Southwell – but his trainer has a fine record in all-weather handicaps with runners have their second started after being gelded, scoring with 23 of the 88 qualifiers since May 2016 for a profit of £34.62 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran at Lingfield were eight from 15 (+£30.75) and the last five qualifiers all won (7-1, 7-1, 7-2, 3-1 and 3-1).
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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