Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew mas among the winners with TRAC on Thursday and has three stats-based picks on Friday, December 29th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
LIMERICK 12.20
EX PATRIOT (system – Veterans’ Handicap Chase, finished sixth or worse last time out)
Ten-year-olds – the youngest age group eligible to take part – have won nine of the past ten renewals of this veterans’ handicap chase. We wouldn’t make money by blindly backing the ten-year-olds in these contests but siding with those who ran sixth or worse last time out is a profitable angle. The theory being that they were taking on younger/more progressive rivals, often in more valuable races, and are now competing at a more realistic level. Following this system would have found 78 winners from 508 bets (15.4%) for a profit of £115.15 to the usual £1 stake. EX PATRIOT was only sixth at Fairyhouse last time but the five horses who beat him were all aged six or seven and this course winner is taken to bunce back.
DONCASTER 1.40
ZAMBELLA (system – Distance preference)
ZAMBELLA has been a wonderful servant to the Nigel Twiston-Davies team and made a winning reappearance in the Listed Houghton Mares’ Chase at Aintree earlier this month, coming home 17 lengths clear of Burrows Diamond who has since boosted the form. The eight-year-old has now won 12 of her 28 starts and her chase record over 2m-2m5f reads 1112F1121411241 (9-15), with the pair of fourth places coming in the Grade 2 mares’ chase at the Cheltenham festival. She can follow up.
LEOPARDSTOWN 2.55
SEQUESTERED (system – Malinas, young jumps handicappers)
Younger (aged between three and seven) jumps handicappers by the sire Malinas have a fine record, landing 129 of their 714 (18.1%) for a profit of £76.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 106.35, A/E = 1.21). SEQUESTERED drops in class after contesting a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham last time and looks worth chancing on his handicap debut.
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Related
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