Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Bangor winner TAGANYIKA on Friday and has six stats-based selections on Saturday, December 16th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
HEREFORD 1.00
STANLEY STANLEY (system – Venetia Williams, first run after a wind operation)
Bang in-form Venetia Williams is 16 from 65 with runners returning from wind surgery and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £43.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. Had we only backed the chases we’d have won 16 of our 45 bets and made a profit of £63.53. STANLEY STANLEY was a winner from the front at Ffos Las 221 days ago when we last saw him and can defy an 8lb ratings hike.
NEWCASTLE 2.34
LARADO (system – beaten under a claiming jockey in a Chelmsford handicap last time out)
Chelmsford is proving to be a very tricky track for inexperienced jockeys, who often come wide into the straight and give away valuable ground. Horses beaten under claiming jockeys from good draws (stall 6 or lower) in handicaps often make good bets next time, landing 20 of their 132 starts since March 1st for a profit of £58.38 to the usual £1 stake. LARADO was too free when only eight of ten in a 1m Chelmsford handicap under 3lb apprentice Frederick Larson last time and looks interesting with Ali Rawlinson taking over.
CHELTENHAM 3.00
MOON D’ORANGE (system – John McConnell Cheltenham runners, non-festival)
John McConnell does well at Cheltenham, especially outside of the main festival in March. He’s won with nine of his 36 such runners for a profit of £31.88, including a two from two haul in December. Pace angle MOON D’ORANGE is a big price but could be worth chancing in the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle. The five-year-old fits the age profile of previous winners and the first-time cheekpieces could eke out some improvement.
NEWCASTLE 3.41
MOYOLA (system – Lucinda Russell, Flat handicaps)
Lucinda Russell is predominately a jumps trainer but she has a good recent record with her handicappers on the Flat (turf or all-weather), scoring with 17 of the 114 qualifiers since the start of last year for a profit of £46.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. MOYOLA contributed with a wide-margin course and distance win last time, albeit from a favourable draw, and can follow up.
WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00
CRYPTOS DREAM (system – Jack Jones, Class 6 all-weather handicappers)
Jack Jones has a cracking record with low-grade all-weather handicappers, scoring with 13 of his 50 runners in Class 6 company for a profit of £42.48 (expected winners = 7.55, A/E = 1.72). CRYPTOS DREAM has a wide draw to overcome but has the early speed to get a cross and get a good pitch on the heels of the leader and is still worth a small interest.
WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00
OUT OF THE STARS (system – drawn badly in the Queen Mary Stakes last time out)
It usually pays to be drawn very high in the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot and the runners in stalls 12 or lower tend to struggle. Those same horses often make good bets at the next time of asking, landing 23 of their 75 starts (30.7%) since 2017 for a profit of £25.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. This year’s qualifiers to have run since recorded form figures of 2132413100 (3-10) on their next start and OUT OF THE STARS, a debut winner at Kempton before finishing down the field from stall 6 of 26 (non-runner adjusted) in the Queen Mary can maintain her 100% all-weather record.
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