Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newbury, Fontwell, Ayr and Exeter for his four stats-based picks on Friday, April 19th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWBURY 2.12
DIVINE LIBRA (system – Charles Hills, first run since gelded, handicaps)
Charles Hills has a good recent record with handicappers om their first start after a gelding operation, scoring with ten of the 55 qualifiers since 2019 for a profit of £28.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Yesterday’s two qualifiers both placed in the opener at Newbury yesterday (20-1 second and 33-1 fourth) and DIVINE LIBRA, in the frame in eight of his nine career starts, can reward each-way support on his reappearance.
FONTWELL 3.30
LA BREILLE (system – Richard J Bandey, chase debut)
Richard Bandey has a seven from 19 record with his chase debutants for a profit of £98.25 to a £1 level stake at SP, with four of the 12 beaten horses finishing second (8-1, 5-1, 9-2 and 100-30). LA BREILLE’s sole win came in a Fakenham maiden hurdle back in October 2022 but the switch to fences could bring about improvement and she could go well in this Class 5 handicap chase.
AYR 3.55
SALAMANCA BAY (system – Ayr chases, won another Ayr chase LTO)
Ayr chase winners have a solid record when bidding to follow up in another race over fences at the Scottish venue, landing 29 of their 86 starts since 2010 (33.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £44.24 to a £1 level stake at SP. SALAMANCA BAY won unchallenged over course and distance in a first-time hood last month and can double up, despite encountering much softer going this time.
EXETER 6.30
KICK UP A STORM (system – Paul Nicholls, first-time cheekpieces, finished fourth or worse last time out)
Paul Nicholls has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces, scoring with 54 of the 236 qualifiers since 2010 (22.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £17.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. The value usually lies with those who disappointed on their latest outing and backing the ones who finished fourth or worse last time out would have found 35 winners from 145 bets (24.1%) for a profit of £50.01. KICK UP A STORM was only seventh in a maiden hurdle at Taunton last time but the headgear and switch to handicap company can help to bring about the required improvement.
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