Whether it’s players missing sitters or scoring worldies, xG is a stat that is used consistently in modern football. Some players have incredible seasons where they outperform their xG.
What is xG?
xG stands for expected goals. It’s a metric that calculates the quality of goalscoring chances and the likelihood of the player scoring the goal.
The xG number is always a value from 0 to 1. For example, Erling Haaland – who has the highest xG in the Premier League – had a close-range miss against Manchester United that had an xG score of 0.73. Marcus Rashford’s screamer had an xG of 0.04.
According to understat, these are the top five highest overperformers in Europe.
5 – Jude Bellingham (+4.50)
Bellingham joined Real Madrid last summer and the 20-year-old is now considered one of the best players in the world. Real Madrid initially signed Bellingham for £88m but it’s likely they’ll have to pay an extra £21m due to performance based add-ons.
Bellingham is La Liga’s top scorer with 16 goals. In all competitions, the Englishman has 29 G/A in just 31 appearances. The xG rating shows the quality of Bellingham’s finishes as he is massively exceeding his xG figures.
5 – Artem Dovbyk – (+4.50)
Another special talent from La Liga. Dovbyk has helped Girona defy the odds this season and they’re challenging Real Madrid for the La Liga title.
Girona spent a club-record £6.3m to sign Dovbyk from Dnipro. Dovbyk scored 53 goals in 83 appearances for Dnipro; making the bargain of the summer.
Dovbyk is trying to challenge Bellingham for the La Liga top scorer. He is stuck in third alongside Alvaro Morata and Ante Budimir.
4 – Son Heung-Min (+4.53)
Son has faired rather well since Harry Kane left for Bayern Munich. He is continuing to outperform his xG figures which he has done since the 2015/16 season.
Son has shown why he is one of the best wingers in world football – scoring 13 league goals from an xG of 7.47. Ange Postecoglou will be relying on Son’s goalscoring talents to get his side back into the Champions League.
3 – Albert Gudmundsson (+4.77)
Genoa returned back to the Serie A after getting relegated in 2022. They’ve had a stunning return and Gudmundsson has played a big part of that. He’s scored nine goals in 25 appearances.
The quality of finishes have been outstanding and he’s on David Moyes’ wishlist for West Ham in the summer. He’s also been linked with AC Milan, Juventus and Inter Milan.
2 – Lauturo Martinez (+4.79)
Despite underperforming in Argentina’s World Cup win in 2022, Martinez has clearly been inspired as his performances this season have been phenomenal.
He has 31 G/A in 35 appearances and he’s played a huge part in Inter Milan’s incredible season. They’re 15 points ahead at the top of the Serie A table.
1 – Harry Kane (+4.91)
Kane has enjoyed a record-breaking season at Bayern Munich, despite falling 10 points behind to Xabi Alonso‘s Bayer Leverkusen at the top of the league.
Kane has 33 goals in 33 games and he will break Robert Lewandowski’s Bundesliga record for most goals in a single season. Kane is on 27 and he needs to score 15 more goals to break it.
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