Nicola Sturgeon’s unexpected resignation last week signalled a major transition period for the SNP and Scottish politics in general, and has thrown plans for a proposed second independence referendum into doubt.
With health secretary Humza Yousaf emerging as the clear favourite to succeed Nicola Sturgeon after nine years of leadership, it remains unclear whether he, or any other incoming first minister would be able to see out the party’s proposal for a de facto referendum in October 2023, which now looks to be on the back-burner for the time being.
Despite this, the SNP have spent the past decade campaigning for Scottish independence and any incoming leader would likely keep pushing for a fresh vote, even if it has been derailed slightly by Sturgeon’s untimely exit.
Next Scottish Independence Referendum Odds: When Will The Next Vote Be?
The pathway for independence is unclear at this moment in time as the Scottish government focuses on fast-tracking a new first minister into the hot seat.
However, even if there was a significant push for a second vote in 10 years, the Scottish government will likely face heavy resistance from Westminster. Sturgeon proposed a second referendum in January 2020, but was quickly shut down by Boris Johnson who held an iron clad stance on keeping Scotland within the UK’s political grasp.
Johnson also scuppered plans for a vote in the summer of 2022, while Sturgeon faced separate opposition from the Supreme Court after attempting to push through a referendum vote without the approval of the UK government.
The priority for any new SNP leader will still be pushing for another divisive independence referendum.
💬 @CraigWHoy1: "That's their obsession. That's why they govern. They don't govern in the interests of the Scottish people." pic.twitter.com/pyJaiHLUq9
— Scottish Conservatives (@ScotTories) February 17, 2023
Support for independence rarely rises above 50%, and stands at around 45% at this moment in time. With a cost of living crisis sweeping through the nation, voters are likely to have their attention turned elsewhere as opposed to the topic of independence while Scotland sees out this transitional period, and a single-issue campaign by the SNP may have dire consequences for the upcoming general election.
Any proposals for a fresh referendum would likely be staged after the 2024 general election, and perhaps after a Holyrood election in 2026, but with independence support figures well below the threshold, the party will need to gain traction in the coming months under new leadership.
Next Scottish Independence Referendum Odds
Result
- Stay – 5/6
- Leave 5/6
Timeline
- Not before 2025 – 1/50
- 2025 or later – 1/41
- 2024 – 20/1
- 2023 – 50/1
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