Use our Newmarket ITV Racing trends on the opening day of the 3-day July Festival on Thursday 13th July 2023. You can use these trends to put history on your side and highlight the best profiles of horses based on previous winners.
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Day One, Thursday 13th July 2023
It’s day one of the Newmarket July Festival this Thursday (13th July 2023) and we’ve four of the seven races LIVE on ITV Racing. The action gets going with three Group races too, with the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes and July Stakes two of the main highlights.
So, to help you find the winners, we’ve got the main Newmarket ITV Racing trends at this week’s July Festival – you can use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners and putting history on your side.
RELATED: ITV Racing Tips For Newmarket July Meeting On Thursday: Day One 1-2-3 Best Bets
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Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Festival Stats on Thursday 13th July 2023
1.50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV
With ALL of the last 21 winners having had at least 2 runs that season already, this is a negative for the Godolphin runner Castle Way, while 86% of the last 21 winners also didn’t win last time out – another minus for Castle Way, who won well on the Rowley Mile track here last time out. Having raced at Royal Ascot last time out is a plus, with the likes of Saint George, Think First and Land Legend all ticking this Newmarket trend.
But the two that standout are Saint George, who ran the useful Gregory to 1 1/2 lengths in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last month and should have more to come with just 5 runs. While at a bigger price the William Haggas yard won this in 2020 and in Klondike have a squeak of adding to that. This Galileo colt has only had 2 career runs, but is also closely-matched with Gregory after running on to take second to that horse at Goodwood at the end of May. That came over 1m3f, but stayed on well to suggest the step up to 1m5f here will be right up his street.
Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: Bahrain Trophy
- 21/21 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
- 18/21 – Failed to win last time out
- 17/21 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
- 13/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
- 13/21 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
- 13/21 – Favourites placed in the top three
- 12/21 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
- 10/21 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
- 6/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 12 runnings)
- 3/21 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
- 2/21 – Ridden by William Buick
- 2/21– Winners that came from stall 1
2.25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV
With 18 of the last 212 winners of the July Stakes having had 2+ previous runs this might be deemed a negative for the once-raced Purosangue, Lake Forest and Chief Mankato. We’ve seen 33% of the last 21 favourites win the prize too, but just one winner from stall 1 – this year Jasour will be trying to defy that draw stat.
Foaled in either February or March is another thing to note for these juveniles, which January foal Purosangue falls down on too. Malc was a decent runner-up in the Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot last time and is shortlisted.
However, the Aidan O’Brien entry Mountain Bear is another of interest having improved to win at the Curragh last time out on just his second career run, plus the Feb foal Maximum Impact, who ran too bad to be true the last day at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle after winning his two previous races very well.
Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: July Stakes
- 20/21 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
- 19/21 – Placed in their last run
- 18/21 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
- 15/21 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
- 12/21 – Won their last race
- 12/21 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
- 11/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
- 10/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/21 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (10 wins in total and last 2)
- 7/21 – Winning favourites
- 2/21 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan
- 1/21 – Winners that came from stall 1
- Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners in the race
3.00 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 6f ITV
Drawn in a double-figure stall has had a good record here – with 13 of the last 17 winners ticking this box. This means 9 of the 17 runners can potentially be ruled out. Also with 88% of the last 17 winners NOT winning their last race this is another trend to look for and something prolific winner Quinault falls down on.
With 14 of the last 17 winners returning 9/1 or bigger don’t be afraid to look further down the betting and 71% had run 3 or 4 runs that season. Finally, we’ve seen 82% of the last 17 winners carry 8st 12lbs or less, which should rule out a fair few. Taking these into account, the Ryan Moore-ridden Washington Heights ticks a lot of boxes, while at a bigger price the recently gelded Rousing Encore is chanced having slipped to a fair mark.
Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: bet365 Handicap
- 16/17 – Had won no more than 3 times before
- 15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
- 15/17 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
- 15/17 – Had won over 6f before
- 14/17 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
- 14/17 – Carried 8-12 or less
- 13/17 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 13/17 – Came from a double-figure stall
- 12/17 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
- 11/17 – Unplaced favourites
- 8/17 – Finished unplaced last time out
- 4/17 – Trained by Andrew Balding
- 4/17 – Ridden by David Probert
- 0/17 – Winning favourites
3.35 – Princess Of Wales´s Close Brothers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV
Just the four runners here and 50% of those are Godolphin-owned. The ‘boys in blue’ also have a good record in this race – winning 4 of the last 9 and their 2021 Epsom Derby winner Adayar looks the safe call to add to that record. He’s the clear top-rated in the field off a mark of 121 and should find these ease back into a Group Two to his liking after running a fair third in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.
Israr, Global Storm and Grand Alliance, with the 4-time winning jockey of this race Ryan Moore riding, can fight it out for the places.
Newmarket ITV Racing Trends: Princess Of Wales’s Stakes
- 19/21 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 12 of last 15)
- 19/21 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
- 17/21 – Had 2 or more runs that season
- 16/21 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
- 15/21 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 15/21 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
- 15/21 – Unplaced in their previous race
- 12/21 – Favourites that were placed
- 10/21 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
- 5/21 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 9 times in total)
- 5/21 – Won by the Johnston yard
- 4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
- 2/21 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
- Godolphin have won 4 of the last 9 runnings
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