We’ve got the key Newmarket horse racing trends and tips for the ITV3 Racing on Saturday – you can use these stats to help find the best profiles based on past winners of each contest. There are four LIVE races that include the Group One Cheveley Park Stakes and Middle Park Stakes, plus the ultra-competitive Cambridgeshire Handicap, where a field of 35 line-up for the £100k first prize.
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Newmarket Horse Racing Trends and Tips For ITV Racing On Saturday 30th Sept 2023
One of the season highlights at Newmarket racecourse this Saturday with the final day of the 3-day Cambridgeshire Meeting that, not only includes the 35-runner race the fixture is named after, but also two top Group One juvenile contests that will give us a glimpse of the stars of the future – the Cheveley Park and Middle Park Stakes.
We get going with the G2 Royal Lodge Stakes (1:50pm) and it’s a race the Aidan O’Brien yard have won 5 times in the last 21 runnings. They’ve another lively chance this year with Capulet, who we last saw running a decent second in the Champions Juvenile Stakes at Leopardstown.
The G1 Cheveley Park Stakes (2:25pm) is often a fair guide to next season’s 1,000 Guineas, with 16 of the last 21 winners running in that Newmarket Classic, but only one horse over that period – Natagora (2007 & 2008) has won both.
It’s also another event the O’Brien camp like to target – winning 4 of the last 7 – and run Cherry Blossom this year, while the horse from stall 6 has won 5 of the last 21 – Porta Fortuna will be the horse trying to uphold that draw stat.
Next up is the G1 Middle Park Stakes (3:00pm) and, you guessed it, yet another prize the powerful Aidan O’Brien team have a top record in. They’ve landed the pot 7 times since 2000 and look to have another big chance of adding to that with River Tiber. He’ll take on the unbeaten Simon Crisford runner Vandeek, in a race that has a head-to-head feel to it this year – take your pick.
35 Runners Head To Post For The Cambrideshire Handicap
We end the LIVE ITV Newmarket action with the 35-runner Cambridgeshire Handicap (3:40pm), where the trusty ‘pin’ could be in-play for a lot of punters.
We’ve a royal runner in the shape of Saga, with Ryan Moore riding but there are plenty of key Cambridgeshire Handicap trends listed below to help whittle down the runners.
These include looking for horses aged between 4-6 years-old, that are carrying 9-5 or less in weight and coming from stalls 21 or higher.
Last year’s winner Majestic is back for more too and is only 3lbs higher – he’ll be looking to join Rambo’s Hall and Bronze Angel as recent two-time winners of the race.
Taking all these into account, it’s hard to ignore the likely favorite – the 3 year-old Greek Order – who has just 8-9 to carry, is drawn high in 25 and was a cosy 4 1/2-length winner at Newbury last time on just his fifth career run when upped to 1m2f for the first time. There could be a lot more to come from this Kingman colt and jockey Oisin Murphy will be looking for his first win in the 1m 1f race.
So, to also help you find the Saturday Newmarket winners, we’ve highlighted the best horse racing trends for each of the LIVE ITV3 races. Use these Newmarket stats to find the best profiles of past winners and put history on your side.
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Newmarket Horse Racing Tips and Trends On Saturday (ITV Racing)
1.50 – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m ITV4
- 21/21 – Had won one or two races before
- 20/21 – Had won over 7f or further before
- 20/21 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
- 19/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
- 18/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
- 16/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
- 16/21 – Either US or Irish bred
- 15/21 – Had only won over 7f before
- 13/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
- 12/21 – Won last time out
- 7/21 – Winning favourites
- 5/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
- 4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
- 14 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 6 or lower
- Note: From 2010 back, the race was run at Ascot, except in 2005 (Newmarket)
2.25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies) Cl1 6f ITV4
- 21/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
- 19/21 – Had won over 6f before
- 19/21 – Had not run at Newmarket (Rowley) before
- 18/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
- 17/21 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
- 16/21 – Had 3 or more previous runs
- 16/21 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
- 16/21 – Went onto run in the 1,000 Guineas the following season (2 won it)
- 14/21 – Placed favourites
- 13/21 – Won last time out
- 12/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 10/21 – Had won exactly 2 previous races
- 9/21 – Horses from stall 6 that finished in the top 3
- 7/21 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
- 5/21 – Winners drawn in stall 6
- 4/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (4 of last 7 runnings)
- 1/21 – Went onto win the 1,000 Guineas the following season
- 11 of the last 16 winners came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
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3.00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group 1) (Entire Colts) Cl1 6f ITV4
- 20/20 – Won over 6f previously
- 19/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
- 18/20 – Won their last race
- 18/20 – Won at least twice previously
- 17/20 – Had run 3 or more times previously
- 17/20 – Never raced at Newmarket (Rowley) previously
- 16/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
- 15/20 – Foaled in either Feb or March
- 13/20 – Favourites placed
- 13/20 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
- 8/20 – Ran at Deauville last time out
- 7/20 – Favourites that won
- 6/20 – Won by an Irish-based stable
- 5/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 of the last 6)
- 2/20 – Trained by Clive Cox
- 2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
- 2/20 – Winners that came from stall 1
- Aidan O’Brien won the race in – 2000, 2001, 2004, 2011, 2017, 2018 & 2019
3.40 – Bet365 Cambridgeshire (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 1m1f ITV
- 21/21 – Aged 6 or younger
- 18/21 – Carried 9-5 or less
- 17/21 – Won 3 or more times in their career
- 17/21 – Won from a double-figure stall
- 16/21 – Aged between 4 and 6 years-old
- 15/21 – Unplaced favourites
- 15/21 – Returned a double (or treble) figure price in the betting
- 14/21 – Had 5 or more runs that season
- 14/21 – Had won over 1m2f before
- 13/21 – Finished 5th or better last time out
- 13/21 – Rated between 90-100
- 12/21 – Carried 8-12 or less
- 6/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
- 5/21 – Returned 14/1 in the betting
- 4/21 – Winning favourites
- 4/21 – Trained by John Gosden
- 3/21 – Won their last race
- The last 8 winners came from stalls 21 or higher
- 15 of the last 17 winners had run in the last 9 weeks
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 22/1
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