You can use Andy Newton’s key Midlands Grand National trends 2024 to find the best profiles based on the last 20 winners – including TWO stonking 90% Uttoxeter stats that can narrow your search for Saturday’s winner.
Midlands Grand National Trends and Stats For 2024 Cheltenham Festival Day Three Feature
The Midlands Grand National always has big shoes to fill – being run the day after the Cheltenham Festival finishes. But the good news for the best UK horse racing betting sites is that many punters are still in the mood for a bet and this is the biggest race at the weekend that can take full advantage of that.
Oh and a certain Mr Cheltenham – Willie Mullins – has the likely favourite in Mr Incredible.
Last year we saw the Hemmings runner Major Dundee land the race for trainer Alan King and the famous green, yellow and white silks will be hoping to follow up with Iron Bridge.
We could also see the 2020 winner Truckers Lodge running again, now aged 12, who has the claimer Freddie Gingell booked to ride (claiming 5lbs) and with five of the last 11 winners guided home by a conditional jockey, this is a top Midlands Grand National trend in his favour.
Talking of stats, there are plenty to get struck into below – we’ve got the last 20 runnings covered which has unearthed several golden nugget Midlands Grand National trends.
Midlands Grand National Trends 2024: The Positive and Negative Uttoxeter Stats
Andy Newton gives you the key positive and negative Midlands Grand National stats that have built up over the last 20 years. You can use these to apply to the 2024 Uttoxeter runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.
Positives
- ✅ 18/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- ✅ 18/20 – Won between 1-4 times over fences
- ✅ 18/20 – Carried 10-12 or less
- ✅ 18/20 – Won over at least 3m (fences)
- ✅ 16/20 – Won by an Irish bred horse
- ✅ 15/20 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
- ✅ 14/20 – Yet to race at Uttoxeter
- ✅ 14/20 – Carried 10-10 or less in weight
- ✅ 14/20 – Top 3 last time out
- ✅ 13/20 – Unplaced favourites
- ✅ 12/20 – Officially rated 135 or less
- ✅ 11/20 – Returned a double-figure-price in the betting
- ✅ 11/20 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
- ✅ 10/20 – Top 3 in the betting
- ✅ 10 of the last 13 winners aged 8 or 9
- ✅ 5 of the last 11 winners were ridden by a conditional jockey
- ✅ The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 11/1
Negatives
- ❌ 6/20 – Won their last race
- ❌ 3/20 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
- ❌ 3/20 – Winning favourites
90% Of The Last 20 Winners Carried 11st Or Less
The big Midlands Grand National trend to get going is that a massive 18 of the last 20 winners carried just 10st 12lbs or less, which will knockout a few. But this weight trend can be taken further.
Plus, 70% Carried 10st 10lbs or Less
With 14 of the last 20 winners also having just 10st 10lbs or less, which will put a line through a stack more. Last year’s winner Major Dundee carried just 10st 2lbs, while 4 of the last 5 (80%) won with only 10st 7lbs or less on their backs.
Look For A Top 3 Finish Last Time Out
Next up is to note runners that come here with a top three finish in their most recent race.
This stat has been ticked for 14 of the last 20 winners, while recent winners have also fared well in such a competitive race with 30% going in.
Horses Aged 9 Or Younger Have The Best Record
When it comes to age, make 9 your cut-off point – with another massive 90% strike-rate here.
Yes, most will fit the bill, but we can still narrow down the age search with another 77% stat that’s seen an 8 or 9 year-old win.
Three of the last four have been aged 8, while 80% of the last 10 were aged 8 or 9.
Note Horses That Ran In The Last 8 Weeks
Coming into this gruelling Uttoxeter race having raced within the last 8 weeks is next. This stat has applied to 75% of the last 20 winners.
Course Experience Doesn’t Matter
With 14 of the last 20 winners of the Midlands National having never raced at the Uttoxeter venue in the past. Backed up again in 2023 with Major Dundee racing at the course for the first time.
Just 3 Winning Favourites In The Last 20 Years
What about the jolly?
We’ll the good (if you like hunting for big prices) or bad news (if you like betting on the market leader) is that the favourite has only won 3 of the last 20 (15%). While 13 of the last 20 were also unplaced.
Having said that, the 50% of the last 20 winners still came from the top 3 in the betting, but 55% of these winners returned a double-figure price – including 6 of the last 8.
Respect Any Horse Ridden By A Conditional Jockey
Being run over won of the longer trips in jumps racing (4m2f) then having some weight help by booking a claiming jockey is another obvious plus. This is backed up in recent years with connections latching onto this – 5 of the last 11 winners were steered home by a claiming rider.
When Is The 2024 Midlands National?
The Midlands National is staged at Uttoxeter and is always run on the first Saturday after the Cheltenham Festival
📅Time/Date: 3:00pm, Saturday 16th March 2024
🏇Racecourse: Uttoexter
💰 Winner: £84,405
📺 TV: SkySports Racing / ITV4
Recent Midlands National Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2023 – MAJOR DUNDEE (12/1)
- 2022 – SCREAMING COLOURS (12/1)
- 2021 – TIME TO GET UP (3/1 fav)
- 2020 – TRUCKERS LODGE (6/1)
- 2019 – POTTERS CORNER (20/1)
- 2018 – REGAL FLOW (16/1)
- 2017 – CHASE THE SPUD (11/1)
- 2016 – FIREBIRD FLYER (16/1)
- 2015 – GOONYELLA (6/1)
- 2014 – GOULANES (13/2 fav)
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