As we gear up for the Melbourne Cup in Australia, the hot favourite in the betting is Vauban. However, if you’re thinking of backing this Willie Mullins-trained runner you might want to see the TWO big 89% Flemington Park stats he’ll need to overcome.
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Vauban Has TWO Big Melbourne Cup Trends To Overcome
There are many Melbourne Cup trends to look out for – we’ve listed the main ones here. You can use these stats to find the best profiles of past winners, then apply these to the 23 runners and whittle down field.
However, with the Willie Mullins-trained Vauban expected to go off the big Melbourne Cup favourite – does his 5 year-old tick the main stats?
The short answer is NO.
There are several key Melbourne Cup trends seemingly against Vauban – including two stats with a strike-rate of 89% in the last 19 years.
Melbourne Cup 2023 Date and Time
📅Date: Tuesday, 7th November 2023
🕙Time: 4am (UK) or 3pm (Australian AEDT Time)
🏇Racecourse: Flemington
💰 Winner: £2,485, 876
📺 TV: Sky Racing
You can also see the full details on what time the Melbourne Cup will be shown in the UK.
89% Of The Last 19 Melbourne Cup Winners Were Drawn In Stalls 5 Or Higher
The Melbourne Cup is run over a trip of 2m, so many would think that the starting draw wouldn’t have that much of an impact – after all, the horses have plenty of time to get into the race.
However, the Melbourne Cup trends tell us a different story – with 17 of the last 19 winners hailing from gates 5 or higher.
There could be various reasons for this, but the obvious one is that the horses on the inside – unless they break well – could get trapped in and are then forced to run around runners in the second part of the race and losing ground and energy.
Then, even if a horse drawn low does break well and get to the lead, then might not want to race like that or they may be using up energy having to maintain that effort to stay out of trouble up top.
Regardless of the reason, the stats tell us that 89% of the last 19 winners came from stalls 5 or higher and this is backed up further with 13 of the last 19 (68%) drawn in stalls 9 or higher.
Vauban has been handed gate 3.
You can see what Willie Mullins and Rich Ricci think about the draw here.
Just Three Winning Melbourne Cup Favourites Since 2004
Next up is the Melbourne Cup favourites record, as since 2004 we’ve only seen three winning market leaders – and two of these were the same horse.
Makybe Diva won the race in 2004 and 2005 – both times as favourite and since then we’ve only had the Gai Waterhouse-trained Fiorente win as the jolly in 2013.
Other Melbourne Cup Trends Against Vauban
As well as the two above 89% stats, there are also a few other Melbourne Cup stats Vauban will need to overcome.
84% of the last 19 winners had also raced at Geelong, Flemington, Caulfield or Moonee Valley – Vauban’s last outing was at Naas in Ireland.
It’s also been a good race for horse that have day a recent run, with 84% of the last 19 winners having run in the last four weeks, while 13 of the last 19 (68%) last raced in the last two weeks.
Vauban’s last race was 92 days ago.
So, taking all these Flemington trends into account – are you with or against the hot Melbourne Cup favourite – Vauban?
Melbourne Cup Betting Odds 2023
See below the latest Melbourne Cup 2023 betting for the Tuesday 7th November race (prices from BetMGM).
- Vauban 9/4
- Gold Trip 4/1
- Without A Fight 11/2
- Soulcombe 8/1
- Absurde 14/1
- Breakup 14/1
- Future History 20/1
- Lastochka 20/1
Odds are subject to change and other on request.
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