West Ham and Fiorentina both head to Prague in search of a first European trophy since the 1960’s, and this intriguing finale pits an unstoppable force against an immovable object. Ahead of Wednesday’s showdown, we have had a deep dive into this year’s stats and trends in order to land on our Europa Conference League final tips.
Europa Conference League Final Tips
- Under 2.5 Goals @ 4/6
- Fiorentina Over 2.5 Cards @ 5/6
- Arthur Cabral to Score @ 21/10
- Draw @ 21/10
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Under 2.5 Goals
Neither of these sides have featured in a European final for the better part of half a century, so expect the opening stages to be scrappy and tense as they weight each other up.
For all West Ham’s early-season transgressions, they have regained a confidence that was previously missing and look particularly comfortable in their defensive shape, waiting to pounce on the counter.
The tail end of the season saw them concede just twice in their final six fixtures, while they have conceded just seven goals across their 12 matches in the Europa Conference League – excluding their play-off back in August.
Although Fiorentina have been the most productive side in front of goal throughout the tournament with 36 in 14, we can’t see David Moyes’ side letting their guard down at the final hurdle.
Fiorentina Over 2.5 Cards
Our second selection is fairly straightforward.
The Italians have one of the worst disciplinary records in this year’s competition, ranking just behind Basel for the most yellow cards – 37 in 12 games – while also committing the most fouls of any side.
West Ham have made a habit of counter-attacking with real intent, which Fiorentina boss Vincenzo Italiano has already publicly declared he plans to stop – expect the Tuscans to get physical and rack up the cards on Wednesday.
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Arthur Cabral to Score
The Europa Conference League’s top scorer Arthur Cabral has enjoyed a spectacular campaign thus far, firing in seven goals and finding the net at every stage of the competition.
While not prolific domestically (8 Serie A goals), the Brazilian is a supremely intelligent poacher with the physicality to match West Ham’s back line. He has come alive on the continent this year and you would be foolish to bet against him.
Draw
We are going out on a limb here and predicting the final to go the distance.
Fiorentina will undoubtedly be frustrated by West Ham’s stubbornness in defence, while the Italians will try every trick in the book to stop the Hammers’ smooth operators further up the pitch.
Expect this final to be characterised by long pauses and niggly passages of play. The Hammers are far from prolific in front of goal and will stick to their game plan, while Fiorentina can count themselves somewhat lucky to have prevailed against Basel in the previous round.
A draw in 90 minutes appears inevitable with both sides firmly poised – we daren’t try and predict what happens after that.
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