Cheltenham Trends For Trials Day 2024, Including Cotswold Chase & Clarence House Chase

Use Andy Newton’s Cheltenham trends ahead of the popular 2024 Trials Day Meeting, which is the final racing action at Prestbury Park before the Festival in March. The ITV Racing cameras are also trackside to take in FIVE races, but we’ve got ALL 8 races covered from a trends angle to help you find the winners.

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Cheltenham Trends For Trials Day (Saturday 27th January 2024)

The home of National Hunt jumps racing – Cheltenham – stages their Trials Day Fixture on Saturday, where horse racing fans can get some further clues ahead of the four-day Festival in March.

We’ve a bumper 8-race card to look forward to that has been bolstered by last week’s cancelled Clarence House Chase slotted into the action.

The first race is at 12:05pm, where Triumph Hurdle fancy Burdett Road tries to take another step closer to the Festival but will face his biggest test yet against another promising sort in Sir Gino.

The Cheltenham trends for the opener tell us we’ve seen 10 winning favourites in the last 19 runnings.

Ahoy Senor Trying To Become The First Ever Cotswold Chase Back-to-Back Winner

At 1:50pm the Cotswold Chase takes centre stage – a race that is often billed as a Gold Cup trial, but the last horse to win both contests in the same season in 2000. You can find out which horse was the last to do the famous double here.

Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor is back for more too – however, the Cheltenham trends tell us this race is yet to produce a back-to-back winner since it was first run in 1980. Can the Lucinda Russell horse become the first?

The moved Clarence House Chase slots in at 2:25pm, where five horses will be trying to lower the colours of the red-hot favourite with the best UK horse racing betting sites – Jonbon. But one of those is last year’s winner Editeur Du Gite – can the Gary Moore chaser land the upset again?

We see the return of the Unibet Hurdle, or the old International to some, at 3:00pm and we are set for a cracker with Willie Mullins sending over last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner Lossiemouth, who takes on the last winner of the race – Guard Your Dreams.

Stayers’ Hurdle Clues On Show In The Cleeve

At 3:35pm we’ll get more clues for the Stayers’ Hurdle at the Festival with some familiar faces lining up for the Cleeve Hurdle. The Cheltenham trends highlight that 15 of the last 18 winners went onto run in the Stayers, with five of those winning both races in the same season.

Trials Day ends at 4:10pm with the Sss Super Alloys Novices’ Hurdle, where the exciting and unbeaten Gidleigh Park tries to further enhance his Festival claims for the Harry Fry team.

To help you whittle down the runners, we’ve got all the Cheltenham trends for Trials Day below. Apply these to the 2024 runners and find the best profiles based on previous winners.

Oh, and we’ve also got the Doncaster trends for the main ITV races this Saturday.

Cheltenham Trends: Horse Racing Stats To Narrow The Fields

12.05 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RTV

• 17/19 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 16/19 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
• 15/19 – Favourites placed
• 14/19 – From top 3 in the betting
• 13/19 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
• 12/19 – Won last race
• 11/19 – Returned 2/1 or shorter
• 11/19 – Won over at least once over hurdles in the UK
• 10/19 – French bred (including 8 of last 9 winners)
• 10/19 – Favourites (1 joint)
• 8/19 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
• 5/19 – Raced at Cheltenham before
• 4/19 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
• 4/19 – Irish bred
• 3/19 – German bred
• Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 10 winners
• 4 of the last 6 winners have been owned by JP McManus

2023 Winner: COMFORT ZONE (J O’Brien) 2/1 fav

12.40 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RTV

• 19/19 – Aged 8 or younger
• 18/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (4 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase, 2023 Stage Star, Turners’ Novices Chase)
• 17/19 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
• 17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
• 16/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
• 16/19 – Placed either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 15/19 – Rated 128+
• 14/19 – Returned 13/2 or shorter
• 13/19 – Irish bred
• 12/19 – From the top 3 in the betting
• 11/19 – Carried 11-2 or more in weigth
• 8/19 – Won last race
• 7/19 – Raced at Kempton last time out
• 5/19 – French bred
• 4/19 – Carried 11-12 in weight
• 3/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
• 2/19 – Trained by Tizzard yard
• 2/19 – Favourites (1 in the last 13 runnings)
• 8 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or 8

2023 Winner: STAGE STAR (Paul Nicholls) 11/4 fav

1.15 – Paddy Power Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

• 17/19 – Returned 9/1 or shorter
• 17/19 – Rated 130+
• 16/19 – Won between 1-4 times over fences before
• 16/19 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
• 16/19 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
• 15/19 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
• 14/19 – Ran over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
• 13/19 – Aged 8 or older
• 13/19 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
• 12/19 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd in last race
• 12/19 – From the top 3 in the betting
• 11/19 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
• 9/19 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
• 7/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
• 6/19 – Won last time out
• 4/19 – Raced at Newbury last time out
• 4/19 – Favourites
• 3/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
• 2/19 – Won the by the Paul Nicholls yard (2 of the last 5)
• 2/19 – Won the by the Venetia Williams yard (2 of the last 10)
• 2/19 – Won the by the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard (2 of the last 6)

2023 Winner: IL RIDOTO (Paul Nicholls) 9/2

1.50 – Paddy Power Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

• 20/20 – Officially rated 151 or higher
• 19/20 – Raced at Cheltenham over fences before (10 had won)
• 18/20 – Ran in the last 8 weeks
• 18/20 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
• 16/20 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
• 15/20 – Returned 7/1 or less
• 15/20 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, 14 placed 8th or better)
• 13/20 – Favourites placed
• 13/20 – Raced at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (6) last time
• 11/20 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
• 10/20 – Unplaced in last race
• 10/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
• 8/20 – Won last race
• 7/20 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
• 6/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
• 3/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
• 2/20 – Favourites
• 1/20 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
• 1/20 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
• The race is yet to produce a back-to-back winner
• 10 of the last 16 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
• Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2023 Winner: AHOY SENOR (L Russell) 13/2

 2.25 – Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

• 20/20 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
• 20/20 – Won at least 3 times (fences)
• 19/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
• 18/20 – Won over fences at 2m1f or further
• 17/20 – Placed favourites
• 17/20 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
• 17/20 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
• 15/20 – Won last time out
• 14/20 – Won by a French-bred horse
• 13/20 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
• 12/20 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
• 12/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
• 11/20 – Favourites
• 8/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
• 5/20 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
• 4/20 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 – Master Minded, 2013 -Sprinter Sacre, 2014 – Sire de Grugy, 2015 – Dodging Bullets)
• 4/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 6 times in all)
• 2/20– Won by the Gary Moore stable
• Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
• Since 1989 (31 runnings) there have been 13 winners aged 8 years-old
• The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 7/2

Note:
Race normally staged at Ascot
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005, 2017, 2023 – Renewals at Cheltenham

2023 Winner: EDITEUR DU GITE (Gary Moore) 14/1

3.00 Unibet Hurdle (Reg as the International Hurdle) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m1f ITV

• 19/19 – Ran over hurdles at Cheltenham
• 17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
• 17/19 – Finished in the top 3 last time
• 16/19 – Won over 2m1f+ (hurdles)
• 16/19 – Won 4 or more times over hurdles
• 15/19 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old or younger
• 14/19 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that season (5 placed)
• 13/19 –  Placed favourites
• 12/19 – Favourites (1 joint)
• 12/19 – Returned 5/2 or shorter
• 11/19 – Won last time out
• 11/19 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham
• 10/19 – Won by a horse aged either 4 or 5 years-old
• 9/19 – Rated 162+
• 6/19 – Won the Greatwood Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
• 5/19 – Won by a French-bred horse
• 5/19 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 5)
• 5/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 9)
• 4/19 – Ridden by jockey Sam Twiston-Davies (4 of the last 9)
• 3/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
• 3/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
• 1/19 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that season (Rooster Booster 2002)
• The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

2021 Winner: GUARD YOUR DREAMS (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 5/1

3.35 – McCoy Contractors Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

• 17/18 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
• 16/18 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles
• 16/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
• 15/18 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
• 15/18 – Ran at Cheltenham (hurdles)
• 14/18 – Officially rated 154 or higher
• 12/18 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
• 12/18 – Finished either 1^st or 2^nd last time out
• 11/18 – Placed favourites
• 11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the market
• 9/18 – Won last time out
• 8/18 – Favourites
• 7/18 – Won by a French-bred horse
• Paisley Park has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
• Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2023 Winner: GOLD TWEET (Gabriel Leenders) 14/1

3.35 – SSS Super Alloys Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) RTV 2m4f110y ITV

• 17/17 – Placed 1^st or 2^nd in their last race
• 16/17 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
• 14/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
• 14/17 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles
• 14/17 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
• 13/17 – Won last time out
• 13/17 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles)
• 12/17 – Placed favourites
• 11/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
• 10/17 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
• 9/17 – Ran at Cheltenham previously
• 5/17 – Favourites
• 5/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
• 4/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
• 4/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
• 3/17 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2023 Winner: ROCK MY WAY (Syd Hosie) 13/2