Cesarewitch Handicap 2022 Trends: Weight Stat You Can’t Ignore

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The Cesarewitch Handicap will see a field of 23 runners heading to post for the big Newmarket handicap this Saturday, but by using some key past trends we can whittle down the entries to find the horses that have the best profiles based on past winners of the 2m2f race.

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RELATED: Newmarket Races Today – View All Races at Newmarket Today


What Date/Time Is The Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap 2022?

📅Date: 3:40pm – Saturday 8th October 2022
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket (2m2f)
💰 Purse/Winner: £103,080
📺 TV: ITV / Racing TV


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The Cesarewitch Weight Trend To Have Onside

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Did you know, a massive 16 of the last 20 Cesarewitch Handicap winners carried 9st 2lbs or less?

Well, if you didn’t – you do now!

This works out at an 80% strike-rate based on the last 20 Cesarewitch winners and, therefore, a great place to start whittling down the 23 runners for the 2022 renewal this Saturday.

If we apply this Cesarewitch weight trend to this year’s race we can put a line through the top eight – Ranch Hand (9-12), Favorite Moon (9-7), Going Gone (9-7), Withhold (9-5), Not So Sleepy (9-5), Inchicore (9-4), Rock Eagle (9-4) and even one of the market leaders Ahorsewithnoname (9-3).

Only 2 Winners Since 2006 Carried More Than 9st 2lbs

So, that’s 8 horses that will need to defy this 80% weight trend if they want to win the 2022 Cesarewitch. Of, course it’s possible, but since 2006 we’ve only seen Aaim To Prosper (2012, 9-10) and Caracciola (2008, 9-6) win with more than 9-2 on their backs.

14 Of The Last 20 Cesarewitch Winners Were Also Aged 5 Or Older

Another fairly decent Cesarewitch trend to have on you corner is the age.

The last 9 winners have been aged between 4-7 years-old, while 70% of the last 20 successful horses were aged 5 or older.

At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve also only seen one winner (Caracciola, 11) since 2000 win the race as a horse aged 9 or older, suggesting we can put a line through those aged 9+.

Those older runners in the race are – the 2017 winner Withhold (9), Not So Sleepy (10) and Author’s Dream (9).


RELATED: Dewhurst Stakes 2022 Betting Trends For Newmarket Race


70% Of The Last 20 Cesarewitch Winners Finished 4th Or Better Last Time

Coming into the Cesarewitch off the back of a decent run is another thing to look for.

Yes, only 3 of the last 20 winners won last time out, but with a much-bigger 70% being placed in the top 4 in their more recent race, this is certainly a stat to respect.

The recent winners in the field are Going Gone, Ahorsewithnoname, Vino Victrix, Run For Oscar and Gibraltar.

While the those that posted a ‘top four’ run last time are – Ranch Hand, Going Gone, Inchicore, Ahorsewithnoname, Prince Imperial, Zoffee, Vino Victrix, Run For Oscar, Evaluation, HMS President, Land Of Winter, Author’s Dream, Call My Bluff and Gibraltar.

See the latest 2022 Cesarewitch Handicap betting odds below


RELATED: Newmarket Racing Tips & Trends: 1-2-3 Best Bets, Sat 8th Oct 22


Which Cesarewitch Horses Tick Our Key Trends?

There are more trends below to take a look at and these can hopefully help narrow down the field even further if you take a punt on some of the middle of the range stats.

However, based on the three we’ve highlighted in this piece, the horses that seem to have the most going for them are these eight below.

Prince Imperial, Vino Victrix, Run For Oscar, Evaluation, HMS President, Land Of Winter, Call My Bluff and Gibraltar.

You can see the main 2022 Cesarewitch Handicap runners betting below from 888Sport

Good luck!


RELATED: Chepstow Racing Tips & Trends – 1-2-3 Best Bets on Silver Trophy Card, Sat 8th Oct 2022


Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Trends Summary

  • 19/20 – Aged 4 or older
  • 16/20 – Carried 9-2 or less
  • 15/20 – Had won over at least 1m6f on the flat before
  • 15/20 – Had run within the last 2 months
  • 14/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
  • 14/20 – Finished 4th or better last time out
  • 14/20 – Aged 5 or older
  • 12/20 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
  • 11/20 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
  • 11/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
  • 11/20 – Drawn in stall 13 or lower
  • 11/20 – Had run at the track before
  • 11/20 – Won by a NH trainer
  • 9/20 – Had won 4 or more times on the flat before
  • 9/20 – The first three home ALL returned a double-figure price
  • 9/20 – Placed favourites
  • 8/20 – Ran at either Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
  • 5/20 – Winning mares
  • 4/20 – Winning favourites
  • 3/20 – Winners from stall 1
  • 3/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (3 of last 4 winners)
  • 3/20 – Won last time out
  • 3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
  • 2/20 – Trained by Mark Johnston
  • 2/20 – Trained by Brian Meehan
  • 2/20 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
  • The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 21/1
  • Just 4 winning favourites since 1993

2022 Cesarewitch Handicap Betting & Key Runners

See below the latest betting ahead of the Newmarket Cesarewitch Handicap on Saturday 8th October.

Cesarewitch Horse Latest Odds Bookmaker
RUN FOR OSCAR 4/1 888Sport logo
AHORSEWITHNONAME 9/2 888Sport logo
VINO VICTRIX 9/1 888Sport logo
SCARAMANGA 10/1 888Sport logo
BABY ZEUS 10/1 888Sport logo
GIBRALTOR 11/1 888Sport logo
EVALUATION 14/1 888Sport logo
ZOFFEE 14/1 888Sport logo
CALL MY BLUFF 16/1 888Sport logo
PRINCE IMPERIAL 20/1 888Sport logo
INCHICORE 20/1 888Sport logo
FAVORITE MOON 20/1 888Sport logo
BAR 22/1 888Sport logo

All odds correct as of 09:24 BST on Sat 8 Oct and subject to change

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Recent Cesarewitch Handicap Winners

  • 2021 – Buzz (8/1)
  • 2020 – Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
  • 2019 – Stratum (25/1)
  • 2018 – Low Sun (10/1)
  • 2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
  • 2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
  • 2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
  • 2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
  • 2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
  • 2012 – Aaim To Prosper (66/1)

Watch Buzz Winning The 2021 Cesarewitch Handicap Again

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