Use our Cesarewitch 2023 trends to help narrow down Saturday’s big field and put history on your side. You can use these Newmarket stats to find the best profiles of past winners of the race –Â like knowing that a massive 81% of the last 21 winners carried 9st 2lbs or less.
Best Horse Racing Offers for Cesarewitch Handicap
Cesarewitch 2023 Trends: Stats To Find The Newmarket Winner
We can expect another big Newmarket field heading to post for Saturday’s Cesarewitch Handicap, with 21 runners entered last year when the Charles Byrnes-trained Run For Oscar rewarded backers at 4/1 by an easy 3 1/4 lengths.
The Hughie Morrison runner Vino Victrix was back in second that day and is expected to be back for more this weekend and this 5 year-old looks to have a leading chance of going one better off a 2lbs lower rating.
Morrison likes this race too – having won it in 2016 with Sweet Selection.
Last year’s third – oh, another Hughie Morrison runner Not So Sleepy, who is now an 11 year-old, could also run and would be looking to match another old-boy winner of the race – Caracciola, who won the 2008 renewal at the same age for trainer Nicky Henderson.
NH Trainers Love To Target Newmarket’s Cesarewitch Handicap
Talking of trainers, it’s a race that is run over 2m2f, so it’s also a prize that the stables more famed for their jumpers like to target.
This is backed up with 12 of the last 21 winners hailing from a NH yard, including the likes of Willie Mullins, who has won 3 of the last 5 renewals, while Philip Hobbs, Alan King and Tony Martin are other big jumping names to have taken the prize.
Irish handler Gordon Elliott will also be trying to join that gang on Saturday as he looks for a first win with Pied Piper, who he’s already booked Ryan Moore to ride.
Pied Piper is the current Cesarewitch 2023 favourite with the best UK horse racing betting sites, while this former John Gosden-trained 5 year-old will be better known these days to jumping fans after running a close second in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival back in March.
With that in mind, let’s see that the key Cesarewitch 2023 trends are, that you can also use to find the best profiles based on past winners of the race.
When Is The 2023 Cesarewitch Handicap?
đź•™Time: 2:40pm
đź“…Date: Saturday 14th Oct 2023
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket (2m 2f)
đź’°: Winner: ÂŁ103,080
đź“ş TV: Racing TV/ ITV
🎲 Odds: Pied Piper 9/2 | Grand Providence 9/1 | The Shunter 10/1 | Vino Victrix 10/1 | 14/1 Bar
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Cesarewitch 2023 Trends – The Last 21 Runnings
- 20/21 – Aged 4 or older
- 17/21 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
- 16/21 – Won over at least 1m6f on the flat
- 16/21 – Raced within the last 2 months
- 15/21 – Placed 4th or better last time out
- 15/21 – Aged 5 or older
- 14/21 – Priced in double-figures in the betting
- 13/21 – Won over at least 2m on the flat
- 12/21 – Had 3 or more previous flat runs that season
- 12/21 – Drawn from stall 13 or lower
- 11/21 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
- 12/21 – Won by a National Hunt (jumps) stable
- 11/21 – Had raced at the track previously
- 9/21 – Won 4 or more times on the flat previously
- 9/21 – The first three finishers ALL returned a double-figure price
- 9/21 – Favourites placed
- 8/21 – Raced at Ascot, Chester or Doncaster last time out
- 5/21 – Winning mares
- 4/21 – Favourites
- 4/21 – Won their last race
- 3/21 – Winners from stall 1
- 3/21 – Won by Willie Mullins yard (3 of last 5 winners)
- 2/21 – Won by the Johnston yard
- The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 20/1
- Only 4 winning favourites since 1993
Ignore Horses Aged 3, With 95% Of The Last 21 Winners Aged 4+
The last two Cesarewitch winners were aged 7, while despite a 3 year-old winner (Darley Sun) in 2009, it’s horses aged 4+ that have the best record with a massive 20 wins in the last 21.
You can fine-tune this Cesarewitch trend with 71% of the last 21 winners aged 5+. Of the main fancies, the 3 year-old Grand Providence would be one that would have this age stat to overcome.
Horses With 9st 2lbs Or Less Have Done Best
Next up is the weight as 81% of the last 21 runnings have gone to horses carrying 9st 2lbs or less.
This was backed up again in 2022 with Run For Oscar winning with 8-11 on his back, with ALL of the last 10 Cesarewitch winners also carrying 9-2 or less.
With this in mind, the expected favourite Pied Piper would fall just outside this with 9-3.
Look For A Run In The Last 2 Months
Coming into the Cesarewitch with a recent run – within the last 2 months – is another trend to look for.
This has paid off in 16 of the last 21 runnings (76%). It’s always best to give these ‘day stats’ a bit of slack – so really, we are looking for horses that have run within the last 65-70 days.
If you don’t know, the days a horse last run can be found on the racecard with the little number next to the horse’s name (to the right).
Goshen and Temporize would fall well outside the 70 days mark.
Mixed Results Regarding The Draw
Being run over 2m2f, then really the draw doesn’t have too much of an impact. Yes, it’s good to get a decent early position, but with well over 2 miles to get into the race it shouldn’t really be the difference between winning and losing.
This is supported with the Cesarewitch trends as it’s almost an even split of 12 of the last 21 winners coming from stalls 13 or lower – meaning 9 of those hailed from draws 14+.
The last 10 winners came from stalls 9, 6, 20, 20, 13, 24, 23, 15, 2 and 18 – a real mixed bag.
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A ‘Top Four’ Finish Last Time Out Can Help
Just 4 of the last 21 winners won last time out, but this recent form trend can be heavily upgraded by knowing 15 of those 21 successful horses were placed in the ‘top four’ in their most recent race.
This is a plus for most at the head of the betting – Pied Piper, Grand Providence, Vino Victrix, Not So Sleepy, The Shunter and Jesse Evans, who were all 4th or better last time.
NH Trainers Love To Target The Race
Being one of the longer flat races on the calendar – run over 2m2f – it’s no surprise the trainers better known for their jumpers like to target the prize.
Willie Mullins has won 3 of the last 5, while Nicky Henderson took the race in 2008 and 2021.
This year, Mullins has another army – Lot Of Joy, Mr Escobar, Zenon, Jackfinbar, who will be ridden by Rachael Blackmore, with Stoke The Fire (Reserve).
Don’t Worry If Your Fancy Is A Bigger Price
Yes, since 2017 we’ve had two winning favourites and even thought last year’s winner Run For Oscar wasn’t the market leader, he was still a 4/1 shot.
That said, since 2002 we’ve still only seen four winning favourites of the Cesarewitch Handicap and it’s a race that’s no stranger to a big-priced winners.
Since 2008, there have been two 66/1 and two 50/1 winners enter the winners’ enclosure – not to mention 25/1 winners too.
RELATED: 2023 Cesarewitch Handicap: Ryan Moore Booked To Ride Pied Piper For Gordon Elliott
2023 Cesarewitch Handicap Betting Odds
See below the latest 2023 Cesarewitch Handicap betting odds from BetUK.
- Pied Piper 5/1
- Grand Providence 17/2
- Vino Victrix 9/1
- The Shunter 10/1
- Jesse Evans 12/1
- Not So Sleepy 16/1
- Temporize 16/1
- Sheishybrid 18/1
- Tashkhan 20/1
- Wordsmith 20/1
- Aztec Empire 20/1
- Goshen 20/1
- Golden Shot 20/1
- Blazeon Five 20/1
- 22/1 Bar
Odds are subject to change and other on request
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Cesarewitch Handicap Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2022 – Run For Oscar (4/1)
- 2021 – Buzz (8/1)
- 2020 – Great White Shark (9/2 fav)
- 2019 – Stratum (25/1)
- 2018 – Low Sun (10/1)
- 2017 – Withhold (5/1 fav)
- 2016 – Sweet Selection (7/1)
- 2015 – Grumeti (50/1)
- 2014 – Big Easy (10/1)
- 2013 – Scatter Dice (66/1)
WATCH: Run For Oscar Winning The 2022 Cesarewitch Handicap
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