Wales’ Euro 2024 qualification hopes took a major blow after being held to a 1-1 stalemate by Armenia on Saturday. With just one game to play, we take a look at the Dragons’ qualifying permutations.
Rob Page led his Wales side out in Yerevan against Armenia on Saturday afternoon knowing that a victory, followed by a win over Turkey on the following Tuesday would secure their spot at next summer’s European Championship in Germany.
With their destiny in their own hands, it didn’t quite go to plan. The Dragons were pegged back early on by Lucas Zelarayan before levelling through an own-goal just before the half-time whistle, but it wasn’t enough as they were held to a 1-1 stalemate.
To make matters worse for Ben Davies and co., Croatia comfortably beat Latvia 2-0 in the other group game which means that Wales’ destiny is no longer in their hands heading into Tuesday night’s clash against Turkey.
Can Wales Still Qualify For Euro 2024?
In short, yes, Wales can still qualify for Euro 2024. There are two methods that they can seal qualification to next summer’s tournament in Germany through, but to do so directly from their qualifying group – there are several factors that must fall into place.
Following Saturday’s stalemate in Yerevan, the Dragons dropped down to third place in Group D, but must reclaim second place in order to secure direct qualification.
To do this, they must overcome already-qualified Turkey on Tuesday evening, and they’ll also need to rely on Armenia securing an unlikely draw or victory against Croatia in Zagreb.
If Armenia manage to pull off a stalemate against the World Cup semi-finalists and Wales beat the group leaders, they would climb back up to second place past the Croats due to their head-to-head record being more favourable and would secure qualification ahead of Zlatko Dalic’s side.
Group D Standings:
- Turkey – P7 GD7 PTS 16
- Croatia – P7 GD8 PTS 13
- Wales – P7 GD0 PTS 11
- Armenia – P7 GD-1 PTS 8
- Latvia – P8 GD-14 PTS 3
Remaining Group D Fixtures:
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
Croatia vs Armenia (19:45)
Wales vs Turkey (19:45)
Have Wales Got A Euro 2024 Play-Off Spot?
With direct qualification now out of their hands, Welsh fans will be delighted to hear that they are now confirmed to have a Nations League play-off spot to fall back on if they are unable to qualify via Group D.
Their play-off spot was confirmed thanks to the Netherlands and Switzerland booking their places at Euro 2024 on Saturday evening, with the pair currently occupying second place in their respective groups.
The Nations League play-offs are due to get underway in March 2024, with three qualification spots up for grabs via three paths in which the winners will be required to win a semi-final and a final.
Who Could Wales Face In The Euro 2024 Play-Offs?
The permutations surrounding Wales’ potential play-off semi-final opponents are fairly complicated, but when simplified – it’s clear to see that their hopes of a home tie rest entirely on Italy and the Czech Republic securing direct qualification on Monday night.
- If Italy AND the Czech Republic qualify: Wales will play either Iceland, Ukraine or Finland at HOME.
- If ONLY the Czech Republic qualify: Wales will play Poland AWAY from home.
- If ONLY Italy qualify: Wales will play the Czech Republic AWAY from home.
- If Italy AND the Czech Republic FAIL to qualify: Wales will play Italy AWAY from home.
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