See below our Grand National Festival Aintree trends for the main ITV races on day two – Friday 12th April 2024. Apply these Aintree trends to each race to whittle down the runners and find the best profile based on previous winners of the race.
Hopefully these Aintree stats will point you in the direction of a few winners!
Aintree Festival Trends and Stats: Day Two (Friday, 12th April 2024)
The second day of the 2024 Aintree Grand National Festival is another hugely popular fixture on the horse racing calendar each season.
There’s a lot to look forward to again with four more Graded races that include the Top Novices’ Hurdle and Melling Chase, which is a race 18 of the last 20 winners ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase at the Cheltenham Festival last time out.
While we the Grand National fences are in action again in the Topham Chase, where 18 of the last 20 winners were aged 10 or younger, plus 17 of the last 20 didn’t win last time out. It could also pay to note any Peter Bowen or Nicky Henderson-trained runners – with 9 wins between them in the last 20 renewals.
Use our Aintree Grand National Festival trends to help find the winners on day two. Plus, we’ve also got all the key trends for the Aintree Grand National on Saturday here.
Aintree Festival Trends on Friday 12th April 24
1.45pm – Huyton Asphalt Franny Blennerhassett Mildmay Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 3m1f
- 20/20 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 20/20 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
- 17/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
- 17/20 – Ran no more than 33 days ago
- 17/20 – Aged 7 or younger
- 16/20 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out (the last 10 winners finished 1st or 2nd at the Festival that season)
- 10/20 – Raced in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
- 9/20 – Favourites
- 6/20 – Won their last race
- 4/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
- 5/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 6)
- 3/20 – Irish trained
- 5 of the last 6 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
- Trainer Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won 9 of the last 20 runnings between them
- 33 of the last 34 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
- 25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 3m previously
- 37 of the last 41 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
- 18 of the last 21 (86%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that campaign
- 22 of the last 24 (92%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
- Only one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989
- 11 of the last 13 winners were the BHA top-rated first and second
- 19 of the last 26 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (13) years-old (12 of the last 14)
- The last 20 winners were either French (8) or Irish (12) bred.
- 6 of the last 11 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
- NO winners since 2000 came here unbeaten over fences
2023 Winner: Gerri Colombe (4/6 fav)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell
2.20pm – The William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m4f ITV
- 9/10 – Won between 2-4 times
- 8/10 – Aged 8 or younger
- 8/10 – Irish bred
- 8/10 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
- 7/10 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
- 7/10 – Unplaced in their last race
- 7/10 – 10/1 or shorter in the betting
- 7/10 – Favs placed (top 4)
- 7/10 – Rated between 133-137 (inc)
- 5/10 – Aged 6
- 5/10 – Had raced at Aintree previously
- 4/10 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
- 3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 1/10 – Favs (joint)
- 0/10 – Outright winning favourites
- Irish-trained – 3 of the last 4 runnings
2023 Winner: Fennor Cross (8/1)
Trainer: John C McConnell
Jockey: Ben Harvey
2.55pm – TrustATrader Top Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m110y ITV
- 19/20 – Ran no more than 31 days ago
- 13/20 – Priced 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 12/20 – Placed first or second last time out
- 11/20 – Raced in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
- 9/20 – Aged 5 years-old
- 6/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (6 of last 13)
- 6/20 – Favourites
- 6/20 – Won last time out
- 21 of the last 24 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
- 17 of the last 26 (65%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 25 of the last 32 (78%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
- 10 of the last 11 winners ran in bumpers before (8 winning at least once)
- Trainer Willie Mullins is currently 0-from-5 since 2016
- Respect JP McManus-owned runners (6 wins), including last 2 (all 6 returned fav)
- Just 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 24 renewals
- Just 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 27 renewals
- Only four Irish winners since 1978 (3 from 31 this century)
- Irish have won just 5 of the last 46 renewals
- 11 of the last 23 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Supreme runner-up is 6 from 7 in the last 24 runnings)
2023 Winner: Inthepocket (3/1 fav)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore
3.30pm – My Pension Expert Melling Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV
- 18/20 – Ran within the last 30 days
- 18/20 – Raced in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
- 17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 17/20 – Aged 9 or younger
- 17/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
- 13/20 – Placed in the top three last time out
- 11/20 – Raced in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
- 10/20 – Favourites
- 9/20 – Irish-trained winners (5 of the last 9)
- 7/20 – Raced in the Ryanair Chase that season
- 5/20 – Won their last race
- 3/20 – Previous winner of the race
- 3/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (4 wins in total)
- Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old
- Respect French breds (the last 6 winners)
- 11 of the last 25 winners trained in Ireland
- Joseph O’Brien runners are 2-from-3
- 25 of the last 32 (78%) winners had won over at least 2m4f
- 33 of the last 36 (92%) winners were aged 7 or older
- 25 of the last 31 (78%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
- 13 of the last 28 (46%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
- 19 of the last 28 (67%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
- 24 of the last 32 (75%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
- 14 of the last 19 (78%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
- 28 of the last 32 (88%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2023 Winner: Pic D’Orhy (4/1)
Trainer: Paul Nicholls
Jockey: Harry Cobden
4.05pm – Randox Supports Race Against Dementia Topham Chase Handicap (Premier Handicap) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV
- 18/20 – Raced within the last 34 days
- 18/20 – Aged 10 or younger
- 17/20 – Didn’t win last time out
- 13/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
- 12/20 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
- 11/20 – Unplaced last time out
- 11/20 – Raced within the last 23 days
- 5/20 – Trained by Peter Bowen
- 4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
- 3/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 3/20 – Won last time out
- 2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins (2 of last 4)
- 2/20 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
- 5 of the last 9 winners carried 11-0 or more
- Only 5 Irish-trained winners since 1979
- Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
- Just two winners aged 11+ (118 have tried) since 1994
- Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 10 winners between them
- 6 of the last 9 winners were rated 141 or higher
- 5 of the last 9 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
- 8 of the last 16 (50%) winners raced in last year’s race
- 11 of the last 17 (65%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
- 12 of the last 19 (63%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
- 15 of the last 30 (50%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
2023 Winner: Bill Baxter (20/1)
Trainer: Warren Greatrex
Jockey: Sam Twiston-Davies
4.40pm – The Cavani Sartorial Sefton Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV
- 17/20 – Had run within the last 35 days
- 15/20 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
- 11/20 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
- 10/20 – Won their last race
- 5/20 – Favourites that won
- 3/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 9)
- 2/20 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
- 2/20 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
- 1/20 – Irish-trained winners
- Trainer Paul Nicholls is 1-from-10 (last 12 runnings)
- 15 of the last 16 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (94%)
- 16 of the last 23 (70%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
- 23 of the last 27 (85%) won at least twice over hurdles before
- 21 of the last 30 (70%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
- 15 of the last 29 (52%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
2023 Winner: Apple Away (16/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Stephen Mulqueen
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