Grand National Festival Aintree Trends On Day Three: Saturday 13th April 2024

See below our Aintree Festival trends for the main ITV races on Saturday 13th April 2024 – Grand National Day! You can apply these Aintree stats to each race to narrow down the runners and find the best profile based on previous winners of the race.

Hopefully these Aintree Festival trends will point you in the direction of a few winners!

Grand National Festival Aintree Trends and Stats: Day Three (Saturday, 13th April 2024)

The third and final day of the 2024 Aintree Grand National Festival there’s a lot to look forward to again with three more Grade One races that include the Liverpool Hurdle, but it’s only about one race on the last day – the Randox Grand National.

All eyes will be on last year’s winner Corach Rambler to see if he can join Tiger Roll and Red Rum as the only back-to-back winners since the 1970’s. He prepped for the race with a solid third in the Cheltenham Gold Cup last month, but is now rated 13lbs higher than when winning this last year.

On the day, there is also the Grade One Mersey Novices’ Hurdle – a race that Cheltenham Festival winner Irish Point won 12 months ago.

Plus the Listed William Hill Handicap Chase, where the trends tell us that 16 of the last 20 winners DIDN’T win their last race.

Use our Aintree Grand National Festival trends to help find the winners on day three.

Aintree Trends on Saturday 13th April 24

1.20pm – William Hill Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m 1/2f ITV

• 9/10 – Priced 11/1 or shorter
• 9/10 – Placed in the top 5 in last race
• 9/10 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
• 9/10 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
• 8/10 – Won 2+ times over hurdles
• 8/10 – Carried 10-12 in weight
• 7/10 – Placed favourites (top 4)
• 7/10 – Never raced at Aintree (hurdles)
• 7/10 – Raced in the last 6 weeks
• 7/10 – Failed to win last time out
• 7/10 – Rated between 131-138
• 5/10 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
• 4/10 – Favourites
• 4/10 – Placed in the top 4 at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
• 2/10 – Trained and ridden by Dan and Harry Skelton
• 2/10 – Trained by David Pipe (Pipe’s 5 wins overall)

1.55pm – The Turners Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

• 19/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
• 17/20 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
• 17/20 – Ran 39 days or less ago
• 16/20 – Finished in the top three last time out
• 15/20 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the market (11 of last 13)
• 12/20 – Ran in the Supreme (4), Ballymore (7) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
• 9/20 – Favourites (2 joint) (8 of the last 12 favs have won)
• 9/20 – Won last time out
• 4/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
• 2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 12 runnings)
• 2/20 – Trained by Willie Mullins
• 2/20 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 6)Ballymore (Baring Bingham) Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
• 20 of the last 26 winners came from the top 2 in the market
• 13 of the last 14 winners were placed 1^st, 2^nd or 3^rd last time out
• 19 of the last 25 (76%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
• 11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
• 15 of the last 24 (63%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival
• 16 of the last 26 (62%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
• Willie Mullins, Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 19 (56%) runnings between them
• 8 of the last 13 runnings were won by a 5 year-old
• Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 27 years
• Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 34 years
• Respect horses rated 150+ (5-from-9 since 2011)
• Front runners in the race have a bad recent record

2023 Winner: Irish Point (5/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Davy Russell

2.30pm – William Hill Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

• 17/20 – Raced within the last 35 days
• 16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
• 15/20 – Aged 8 or older
• 14/20 – Carried 11-1 or less
• 12/20 – Priced 15/2 or bigger in the market
• 12/20 – Unplaced last time out
• 12/20 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
• 4/20 – Won last time out
• 4/20 – Favourites
• 3/20 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 13)
• 2/20 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
• 1/20 – Irish winners
• Only 4 of the last 24 winners were aged 10+
• Only 5 winners carried more than 11st in the last 19 years
• Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 46 runnings
• 9 of the last 13 (69%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
• 10 of the last 16 winners didn’t win earlier that campaign
• 8 of the last 11 winners had won over 3m previously
• Only 2 of the last 17 winners won their last race

2023 Winner: Midnight River (15/2)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

3.05pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

• 16/19 – Raced within the last 30 days
• 15/19 – Returned 11/2 or less in the market
• 15/19 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
• 13/19 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
• 13/19 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting before
• 12/19 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
• 11/19 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham)
• 9/19 – Won last time out
• 9/19 – Favourites (6 odds-on)
• 6/19 – Ran in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
• 4/19 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
• 4/19 – Irish-trained winners
• 2/19 – Trained by Gordon Elliott (last two)
• 2/19 – Trained by Alan King
• 2/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
• 8 of the last 14 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
• 7 of the last 14 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 6 from last 8 (since becoming a G1 race)
• Previous winners of the race are 6-from-6 at the moment
• Horses rated 170+ are 6-from-8 at the moment
• 16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
• 18 of the last 19 (95%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 previoulsy
• 15 of the last 19 (79%) had run at this meeting before
• 14 of the last 19 (74%) were favourite or second favourite
• Only 3 of the last 19 winners aged 9+(Sire Du Berlais, 11)
• Only 2 winners rated below 155 in the last 19 runnings
• No 5 year-old winners

2023 Winner: Sire Du Berlais (16/1)
Trainer: Gordon Elliott
Jockey: Mark Walsh

4.00pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m 2 1/2f ITV

• 31/32 – Rated 137 or higher
• 30/32 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
• 28/32 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences previously
• 28/32 – Won over at least 3m (chase) previously
• 25/32 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS in weight
• 25/32 – Aged 9 or older
• 25/32 – Returned a double-figure price
• 25/32 – Raced no more than 34 days ago
• 23/32 – Outside the top 3 in the betting
• 21/32 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
• 20/32 – Won between 4-6 times over fences previously
• 20/32 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
• 19/32 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
• 18/32 – Favourites placed
• 18/32 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS in weight
• 16/32 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
• 13/32 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
• 12/32 – Irish-trained (inc 9 of the last 17 years)
• 8/32 – Won their last race
• 7/32 – Raced in a previous Grand National (but 13 of the last 15 were having their debuts)
• 7/32 – Favourite or joint favourite
• 3/32 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
• 2/32 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
• 2/32 – Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
• 1/32 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Stats and Facts

• Since 1978, 138 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
• 5 of the last 6 winners had a tongue tie
• 21 of the last 29 winners aged between 8-10
• 19 of the last 24 winners were bred in Ireland
• 14 of the last 18 winners finished in the top 4 in last race
• Just 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
• 13 of the last 15 Grand National having their first run in the race
• Only five 8 year-olds won the last 28 renewals (but 4 in the last 8 years)
• Only two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 37 years (83 have attempted)
• 24 of the last 26 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
• Only two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
• Gigginstown House Stud owned runners – 3 in the last 7
• Just one 7 year-old or younger to win since back in 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
• 14 of the last 26 winners won or been placed in a National-type race previously
• No horse aged 13 or older won since 1923 or placed since 1969
• 3 of the last 14 winners raced in the Scottish National last season
• 10 of the last 20 winners raced over hurdles at some stage earlier in that campaign
• 5 of the last 21 winners unplaced in the National last year

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (20 Year)

• 20/20 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less in weight
• 18/20 – Officially rated 137 or higher
• 18/20 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight
• 17/20 – Raced less than 50 days ago
• 17/20 – Won over at least 3m before
• 15/20 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
• 12/20 – Winners from the top 8 in the market
• 12/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
• 9/20 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
• 9/20 – Irish-trained winners
• 8/20 – Experienced the National fences in the past
• 7/20 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
• 6/20 – Won last time out
• 5/20– Aged 10 years-old
• 5/20 – Favourites (2 joint)
• 3/20 – Trained by Gordon Elliott yard
• 2/20 – Trained by the McCain yard
• 2/20 – Trained by the Lucinda Russell yard

2023 Winner: Corach Rambler (8/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

5.00 – Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m

• 20/20 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
• 20/20 – From the first 3 in the market
• 20/20 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the market
• 17/20 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
• 17/20 – Raced within the last 35 days
• 15/20 – Finished in the top three in their last race
• 13/20 – Raced in the Arkle Chase last time out
• 11/20 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
• 9/20 – Won last time out
• 9/20 – Favourites
• 5/20 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
• 5/20 – Irish-trained winners
• 4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson yard (inc 4 of last 12 runnings)
• 3/20 – Trained by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 10 runnings)
• 11 of the last 15 winners won at least 3 times over fences
• Only 1 winner in the last 24 years finished unplaced last time out
• Only 1 winner in the last 26 years returned 13/2 or bigger
• No 9 year-old winner since 1973
• Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-9 in the last 23 years and 4-from-5 since 2008
• Since 1989 there have been just 5 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016, 2019 & 2022
• Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
• 21 of the last 28 (75%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
• 9 of the last 14 winners were French bred

2023 Winner: Jonbon (2/11)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Aidan Coleman