Use Andy Newton’s 2024 Sussex National trends to find the best horse profile based on past winners of the race and find out which runners tick the Plumpton stats. You can also join up with the race sponsors BetGoodwin to get a ÂŁ25 free bet.
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Sussex National 2024 Race Info
đź“…Date: Sunday 7th January 2024
đź•™Time: 2:50pm
🏇Racecourse: Plumpton 3m 4 1/2f
đź’° Winner: ÂŁ18,484
đź“ş TV: Sky Racing
Sussex National Trends 2023: Rule Out Horses Aged In Double-Figures
You can see the key Sussex National trends from the last 17 renewals of the popular Plumpton race. Use these stats to narrow down the runners and find the best profile of based on past winners.
With the Sussex National run over a stamina-sapping trip of 3m 4 1/2f, on soft or heavy ground, then it goes without saying endurance will be the order of the day in Sunday’s big horse race.
Looking at the 17-year stats they tell us that 94% of winners had raced in the last eight weeks, which ALL of the 11 runners tick.
Horses Aged Between 7-9 Have The Best Records
Most horses would have won over at least 3m (chase) in the past too, but we can start ruling out some with the age. The last 17 renewals haven’t seen a single winner aged in double-figures once. Therefore, this would be a big negative for Eceparti (10), Special Acceptance (11) and Sidi Ismael (10), who are the oldest in the line-up.
We can also take the age trend a bit further with 71% aged either 8 or 9 or 94% aged between 7-9. Ruling out the 6 year-old Iceo Madrik.
It’s not been the best of races for the favourites with only two of the last 17 winning, but 59% of the market leaders were placed. Despite the average record of the favourite, the average winning SP is still just 7/1. Suggesting you don’t have to look far down the betting for the winner.
All of the last six winners returned 6/1 or shorter with the best UK horse racing betting sites.
Respect Horses With 11st 5lbs Or Less To Carry
Weight carried is the next thing to look for with 82% of the last 17 winners having 11-5 or less on their backs. Meaning Tommie Beau, Sidi Ismael, Rose Of Arcadia and Iceo Madrik have his to overcome.
However, it’s worth noting that Rose Of Arcadia has the useful Freddie Gingell riding to claim 5lbs, which brings her under the weight mark with 11-2.
In terms of stables, the Tizzard camp have won two of the last four and try again with Rose Of Arcadia, while the Chris Gordon camp took the prize in 2022 and have course winner Blame The Game.
Finally, with 41% of the last 17 winners having won last time out, this would be a tick in the box for Tommie Beau, Foxboro, Sporting Ace and Gold Clermont
Key Sussex National Trends (17 runnings)
- 17/17 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
- 16/17 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
- 16/17 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
- 14/17 – Carried 11-5 or less
- 14/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
- 13/17 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
- 12/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
- 10/17 – Placed favourites
- 8/17 – Irish bred
- 7/17 – Won last time out
- 2/17 – Winning favourites
- 2/17 – Trained by the Tizzard yard (2 of the last 4)
- The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 7/1
Sussex National Tip and 1-2-3 Best Bets: Rose Arcadia To Add To Fine Tizzard Plumpton Record
Recent winners Tommie Beau, Gold Clermont, Foxboro and Sporting Ace all command respect but the call is to side with last year’s successful yard of Joe Tizzard – they run ROSE OF ARCADIA.
This 9 year-old mare was a fine third at Newbury last time out in a Mares’ Listed Chase. Beaten just 2 lengths behind the useful Pink Legend (watch below).
The standard of oppo here will be easier and having won over 3m 2 1/2f on heavy ground at Newton Abbot in October then the trip and ground will be fine.
Tizzard and Gingell Have Top Plumpton Track Stats
Rose Of Arcadia is also going to be ridden by Freddie Gingell, who is 2-from-3 at the track and is also able to claim a handy 5lbs. This allowance brings her weight under the magic 11-5 to 11-2 and will be a big bonus in the testing conditions.
The final icing on the cake is the Tizzard yard clearly love to target this race – having won it in 2020 as well, so that’s two of the last four going back to their Dorset base. The stable also boast a cracking 31% strike-rate with their chasers at the track – which is the best stats on show here from the eleven yards.
Of the rest, course winner Gold Clermont slammed Eceparti (also runs) by 14-lengths the last day at Fakenham and a 6lb hike for that doesn’t look overly harsh. Foxboro was also a wide-margin winner last time (Exeter) over a longer trip (3m 6 1/2f). So, we know he’ll stay and is up only 5lbs for that.
Sussex National Tips 1-2-3
- ROSE OF ARCADIA (E/W)
- Gold Clermont
- Foxboro
Sun, 7 Jan 2024 , 14:50 GMT • Plumpton • Jumps
Sussex National Winners (Last 10 Years)
- 2023 – ATAKAN (11/4)
- 2022 – GO WHATEVER (5/1)
- 2021 – SEASTON SPIRIT (6/1)
- 2020 – CHRISTMAS IN APRIL (9/2)
- 2019 – THE TWO AMIGOS (11/8 fav)
- 2018 – VINNIE LEWIS (7/2 fav)
- 2017 – MORNEY WING (12/1)
- 2016 – TOUR DES CHAMPS (11/2)
- 2015 – ITOLDYOU (11/1)
- 2014 – REBLIS (5/1)
- 2013 – WELL REFRESHED (6/1)
WATCH: Atakan Winning The 2023 Sussex National
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