Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount writes for the Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, both published by the Racing Post, as well as GG.co.uk. His stats and systems based approach to value bets is a proven formula over time. Andrew provides SportsLens readers with his latest thoughts below.
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It’s day one of Glorious Goodwood where Andrew heads for his three recommended bets/trades on Tuesday, July 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
GOODWOOD JOCKEYS
Since the beginning of 2017, JAMIE SPENCER has won on 19 of his 110 rides at Goodwood for a profit of £71.99 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 14.07, A/E = 1.35). His five mounts today vary in price from 5-1 to 33-1 but he has a fair chance of a winner or two. Best of the bunch is undoubtedly ARISAIG (5.20), who fits the trends for this 1m fillies’ handicap and clocked a good time when third at Newmarket on her latest assignment. CRACK SHOT (1.50) has a win and a fourth to his name from two previous runs under Spencer, while WOLF OF BADENOCH, a debut winner at Doncaster last month, has solid claims in the 2.25. EQUILATERAL has a tricky draw in stall 13 in the 5f handicap (4.10) but form figures in handicap company of 1113 (3-4), with the defeat by three-quarters of a length, suggest he can pick up points. His other ride – newcomer SPEED OF MAAJID (4.45) – is a big price and is unlikely to trouble the judge but there’s enough strength in the others to recommend a small buy in the GOODWOOD JOCKEYS market.
Recommendation: Back JAMIE SPENCER in Goodwood Jockeys
GOODWOOD 3.00
Eight runners do battle in the 7f Group 2 Lennox Stakes and with 50% of them confirmed front-runners it’s likely that the winner will come from off the pace. The improving ENGLISH OAK takes step up in class after his Buckingham Palace Stake success at Royal Ascot, but Ed Walker’s colt arrives here with the best last time out speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings), is likely to be ridden patiently again by James Doyle and can follow up. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back ENGLISH OAK in Goodwood 3.00
GOODWOOD 5.55
EXECUTIVE DECISION caught the eye when fourth at 13 in the big 6f handicap at Epsom on Derby Day, doing best of those to come from off the pace, and can be forgiven her subsequent small-field Ascot defeat (fourth of nine) as they didn’t go fast enough for her. That form has received a couple of boosts and Jamie Osborne’s four-year-old can be backed in this 13-runner handicap. She won this race 12 months ago and followed up at Chepstow and is clearly suited by undulating tracks. Buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back EXECUTIVE DECISION in Goodwood 5.55
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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