Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat action at the Curragh and Doncaster for his two stats-based selections on Saturday, July 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CURRAGH 2.35
RAHMI (system – Pivotal, first-time blinkers)
Progeny of the sire Pivotal have a 33 from 217 record when fitted with first-time blinkers and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £45.23 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 23.32, A/E = 1.42). RAHMI found 6f too sharp when keeping on into seventh of 16 here last time, the extra half-furlong will help, and the headgear could bring about some improvement.
DONCASTER 7.45
AKKADIAN THUNDER (system – poor draw at Redcar last time out)
The bias to low draws on the straight course (distances of one mile or shorter) has been stronger than ever at Redcar this year and simply backing any horses who were drawn in stall 5 or higher, on their next start, regardless of where they finished at Redcar, would have found 32 winners from 187 bets (17.1%) for a profit of £79.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. AKKADIAN THUNDER did well to finish second from stall 10 under a patient ride in a Class 3 mile handicap at Redcar last time (the winner was prominent from stall 3) and can go one place better.
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