Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the Flat meetings at Pontefract and Brighton for his two stats-based selections on Tuesday, July 9th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PONTEFRACT 3.10
CHOISYA (system – Pipalong Stakes, finished fourth or worse last time out)
In the past ten years, backing horses who finished fourth or worse in their latest outing has found nine of the ten winners of the Listed Pipalong Stakes and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £45.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 61.12, A/E = 1.47). Those who ran in Group 3, Listed or handicap company last time were nine from 50 (+£57.00). There are several qualifiers this year with preference for CHOISYA, who did too much too soon under Silvestre De Sousa when only fourth at Goodwood last time. The Crisford’s four-year-old was desperately unlucky not to score at Kempton on her comeback, William Buick takes over in the saddle and the likely soft going won’t be an issue.
BRIGHTON 6.55
BLETCHLEY STORM (system – Night Of Thunder, good to soft or softer going)
Simply backing all progeny of Night Of Thunder on good to soft or softer going on the Flat (based on Proform’s going allowance, not the official verdict) would have found 92 winners from 493 bets (18.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £84.10 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 75.16, A/E = 1.22). BLETCHLEY STORM, who makes her debut for George Baker after leaving Michael Wigham’s care, will appreciate Brighton’s unseasonably soft ground and looks a solid play.
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