Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found Perth winner PLANNED PARADISE (3-1) on Thursday and has four stats-based selections on Friday, July 5th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
DONCASTER 2.05
BEYLERBEYI (system – Ian Williams, LTO winners, Flat turf handicaps, recent run)
Ian Williams has a solid record with last-time out winners in turf handicaps on the Flat, with those who had raced between one and nine days ago landing 30 of their 73 starts (41.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £34.45 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.66, A/E = 1.53). BEYLERBEYI scored with plenty in hand over course and distance last week and can defy a 5lb penalty.
NEWTON ABBOT 2.50
JUMEIRAH KING (system – Anthony Honeyball, handicap hurdle debut)
Anthony Honeyball does well with his runners having their first start in a handicap hurdle, scoring with 29 of the 127 qualifiers (22.8%) for a profit of £70.83 to £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.11, A/E = 1.52). JUMEIRAH KING, winner of a maiden hurdle at Worcester last time, can make a successful transition to handicap company.
DONCASTER 3.15
QAASID (system – Julie Camacho, colts/geldings, fresh)
Julie Camacho does well with Flat/turf runners who have been rested for at least six weeks, with the colts/geldings landing 38 of their 261 starts (14.6%) for a profit of £121.74. QAASID, not best drawn when down the field at York last time, is taken to bounce back.
SANDOWN 4.15
SAVVY VICTORY (system – New Bay, second run since gelded)
Progeny of New Bay are ten from 40 on their start run after a gelding operation and backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £42.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.81, A/E = 1.72). The Flat/turf qualifiers were eight from 28 (+£46.75) and the Sean Woods-trained SAVVY VICTORY is taken to build on his solid 40-1 fourth of 15 in the Listed Wolferton Stakes at Royal Ascot. The five-year-old was a Listed winner on his sole course outing and won’t be inconvenienced if the forecast rain materialises.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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