Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found well backed Worcester winner HIDDEN DEPTHS (15-2 from 18-1) on Monday and has three stats-selections on Tuesday, July 2nd. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
BRIGHTON 3.55
CHOURMO (system – Postponed, turf, 4yo+)
Progeny of Postponed tend to need time and also perform best on grass. Had we bet the sire’s progeny aged four or older, on turf (Flat and jumps), we’d have landed 26 of our 132 bets (19.7% strike-rate) and made a profit of £31.70 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 15.36, A/E = 1.69). CHOURMO was well beaten at Chelmsford last time but is 0-9 on the all-weather and best judged on his course form of 131 (2-3), with the defeat by just three-quarters of a length.
ROSCOMMON 4.45
J’ADORE CHRIS (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
Paddy Twomey has a 27 from 117 record (23.1% strike-rate) with newcomers and backing them all would have returned a profit of £58.56 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 19.32, A/E = 1.40). J’ADORE CHRIS, a daughter of Churchill, can emulate the yard’s latest qualifier from this sire – Juxtaposition – a 3-1 scorer at Leopardstown at about this time last year.
ROSCOMMON 6.50
AMEILYA (system – James Barrett, handicap debut)
James Barrett has a seven from 43 record with his handicap debutants (+£50.00 to a £1 level stake at SP) and AMEILYA, outclassed when a 33-1 last of seven in Group 3 company at Leopardstown in May, looks very interesting in this lower grade. The daughter of Land Force was a 16-1 winner at Gowran Park on her penultimate start and could be over-priced (as big as 25-1 at the time of writing).
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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