Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found winners SAMOOM (4-1) & ELNAJMM (7-4) from three bets on Thursday and has four more stats-based selections on Friday, June 28th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
YARMOUTH 2.20
ELLARIA SAND (system – The Cool Silk Partnership-owned 2yo debutants)
Since the beginning of 2010, backing any juvenile debutants owned by The Cool Silk Partnership would have found 16 winners from 76 bets (21.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £76.13 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.70, A/E = 9.96). Those trained by Archie Watson recorded form figures of 1619 (2-4), with the wins at 13-2 and 11-8, and ELLARIA SAND could be up to making a winning debut. The daughter of Sands Of Mali is a half-sister to Ba’Haa, who contributed to the profit figures with a 13-2 debut win on the all-weather for Archie Watson last spring.
YARMOUTH 5.10
TWILIGHT JAZZ (system – Twilight son progeny in first-time blinkers)
Progeny of the sire Twilight Son have a good record when fitted with first-time blinkers, landing seven of their 38 starts (18.4%) for a profit of £21.63 (expected winners = 3.20, A/E = 4.93). Several of the beaten horses ran well in defeat, including a 33-1 second, and the headgear could spark TWILIGHT JAZZ into life. The four-year-old responded well to first-time cheekpieces in the corresponding week last year, placing third at 20-1 under a forcing ride on the turf course at Lingfield and she’s worth a small each-way punt.
NEWCASTLE 6.35
ONLY IN JAKARTA (system – Kevin Ryan, first run after a wind operation, finished fifth or worse last time out)
Kevin Ryan’s ONLY IN JAKARTA broke his duck in a 7f novice contest at Newcastle in January on his return from a 157-day break and has undergone wind surgery since his disappointing 8-1 sixth of nine at Newmarket’s Craven meeting eight weeks later. His trainer does well with his runners on their first start after a wind operation, scoring with 16 of the 104 qualifiers for a profit of £17.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished fifth or worse last time out were 14 from 81 (+£30.63), while those who finished out of the frame when starting at 12-1 or shorter on their latest start were 12 from 41 (+£55.13). The return to Newcastle will suit and he can bounce back to winning ways.
NEWCASTLE 6.35
ANANDA (system – Gosden yard, second-time hood)
Since the spring of 2016 the Gosden yard has a 15 from 53 record (28.3%) with their runners in a second-time hood and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £15.49 to a £1 level stake at SP. ANANDA kept on well to go down by just half a length in second places when fitted with the first-time hood at Haydock on her latest start, taking her record on good or faster going to 122 (1-3), and can go one better.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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