Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew was among the winners again on Friday and has five stats-based selections on Saturday, June 22nd, including two at Royal Ascot. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
REDCAR 3.30
GULTARI (system – William Haggas, Class 6 turf handicaps, fillies)
William Haggas doesn’t have many runners in Class 6 handicaps on turf but he soes well with fillies in these contests, scoring with 18 of the 61 qualifiers (29.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £41.65 to a £1 level stake at SP. GULTARI struggled home in fifth place when 11-4 for her handicap debut at Chelmsford last time but could improve for the switch to turf for the first time.
ASCOT 4.25
TASK FORCE (system – Jersey Stakes, ran at Newbury or Newmarket last time)
Simply backing horses who prepped at Newbury or Newmarket has been a good pointer to the Jersey Stakes in recent years, with seven of the last ten winners fulfilling the criteria. Backing all 56 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £19.50. Six of those winners were stepping up or down in trip and omitting those who raced over 7f last time increased the profit to £34.50. TASK FORCE could only finish seventh in the 2000 Guineas but that reappearance outing, also his first since a wind operation, would have been needed and he didn’t see out the 1m trip after racing keenly.
ASCOT 5.40
OLD FAITHFUL (system – Golden Gate Handicap, colts, drawn 7+)
We’ve only had four previous runnings of the Golden Gate Handicap at Royal Ascot but, as with the other handicaps on the round course, it’s difficult to win from a very low draw. Colts have won all four runnings and backing the ones drawn in stall 7 or above would have returned a profit of £29.00 (four winners from 24 bets). This angle hit the 1-2-3 last year (20-1, 9-2 and 9-2) and I’ll be playing OLD FAITHFUL (stall 13 of 19) to win as well as combining him in Tote exotic bets with some of the other qualifiers, especially HAND OF GOD.
AYR 6.55
ZAMAN JEMIL (system – John & Sean Quinn, Ayr)
Since the beginning of 2010 the John & Sean Quinn yard has a 45 from 247 (18.2%) record at Ayr (Flat or jumps combined) for a profit of £55.91 to the usual £1 stake. ZAMAN JEMIL hasn’t shown much in four runs for the yard but his best turf form for Roger Charlton came on good to firm going and he gets his conditions for the first time since the stable switch.
AYR 7.25
POP STAR (system – Sioux Nation, small fields)
Simply backing progeny of the sire Sioux Nation in fields of ten or fewer runners would have found 93 winners from 517 bets (18% strike-rate) for a profit of £82.31 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 76.25, A/E = 1.22). Those who ran well in defeat last time out (defined as finishing second, third or fourth) were 48 from 167 (28.7%) for a profit of £82.16 (expected winners = 34.07, A/E = 1.41). POP STAR is no star but might be able to build on her Brighton third of five when looking ill at ease on the undulating track.
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