Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew has found winners for the last two days and has five stats-based selections at Ascot, Chelmsford and Ripon on Thursday, June 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
RIPON 2.05
LINE OF FORCE (system – Calyx 2yos)
Simply backing all Calyx juveniles (prior to yesterday’s racing) would have found 30 winners from 149 bets (21.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £121.21 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 21.82, A/E = 1.38). Karl Burke’s LINE OF FORCE looks well drawn in stall 9 of 11 and can make a winning debut.
CHELMSFORD 2.50
DARK SIDE PRINCE (system – Chelmsford low draws, top speed LTO)
Course expert DARK SIDE PRINCE is well drawn in stall 2 and still looks to be improving at the age of seven, bettering his previous best RPR (Racing Post Rating) by 4lb when scoring over course and distance last month to take his track record in handicap company to 1133493111 (5-10). In the past two years backing horses drawn in stalls 1, 2, 3 or 4 at Chelmsford who had the best last-time out speed figure (according to Proform’s ratings) would have found 76 winners from 283 bets (26/9% strike-rate) for a profit of £38.36 (expected winners = 62.36, A/E = 1.22).
ASCOT 3.05
GOING THE DISTANCE (system – Ralph Beckett 3yos, second run after a gelding operation, handicaps)
Ralph Beckett has a cracking race in handicaps with his three-year-old runners who were having their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with 23 of the 101 qualifiers for a profit of £65.86 to a £1 level stake at SP. GOING THE DISTANCE is also a good statistical fit for this race – drawn high, winning last time out and possessing a patient running style. He took his record since his racecourse debut to 111 (3-3) when bolting up at Kempton last time on his first start since being gelded and, while both of his turf wins came on good to soft or faster going, he’s bred to improve for today’s quicker surface.
RIPON 3.55
MR WAGYU (system – seasonal preference)
MR WAGYU has a strong seasonal pattern to his form, landing 15 of his 35 starts in June/July for a profit of £64.35 to a £1 level stake at Sp (expected winners = 5.77, A/E = 2.60). His record outside this period stands at zero from 0-51 and he ran a blinder on his first summer start of the current season when second by a short head in the 6f handicap at Epsom on Derby Day. The veteran is effective at today’s venue and can go one better.
CHELMSFORD 5.20
RUNNING STAR (system – Hugo Palmer, 3-4yos, gelded since last run)
Hugo Palmer has a 22 from 119 record (18.5% strike-rate) with his three and four-year-olds on their first start following a g3elding operation and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £54.32 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 16.73, A/E = 1.31). This year his record reads 141721321 (4-9), with the winners at 33-1, 6-1, 11-2 and evens, and RUNNING STAR, well drawn in stall 1, is taken to add to recent gains.
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