Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
The action hots up on Friday (June 14th) and Andrew has four stats-based picks at Chester, Sandown and Cork. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
SANDOWN 1.30
ART MARKET (system – Calyx 2yos)
Backing all juvenile progeny of the sire Calyx, regardless of experience and racing surface, would have found 30 winners from 147 bets (20.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £123.21 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 21.67, A/E = 1.38). ART MARKET, William Haggas’ first horse from this sire, was too green to do himself justice at Nottingham 12 days ago, and it’s interesting to see him out again so quickly.
CHESTER 2.15
QUIET RESOLVE (system – Richard Fahey, first-time cheekpieces, 1-28 days absence, turf)
Richard Fahey has a good record when using first-time cheekpieces, especially on his turf runners who had raced within the past fortnight. Since 2010, the score is 32 winners from 184 runners (17.4%) for a profit of £68.50. QUIET RESOLVE, well drawn in stall 3, will hopefully race more prominently in the early stages than he did at York last time where he finished eighth of 19 in a better race.
CHESTER 3.25
HUTCHENCE (system – Ralph Beckett 3yo handicappers, second run since gelded)
Ralph Beckett has a 23 from 98 record with three-year-old handicappers who were having their second start after a gelding operation and backing them blind would have yielded a profit of £68.66 to a £1 level stake at SP. HUTCHENCE, nicely drawn in stall 2 for this 1m2.5f handicap, fared best of those to come from off the pace when fifth in a 1m Windsor novice last time and will appreciate the extra distance on his handicap debut.
CORK 4.50
MOOD ALTERING (system – Fozzy Stack, Starspangledbanner 2yos, debut, early foals)
The Stack yard has a solid record with juvenile progeny of the sire Starspangledbanner on their debuts, scoring with five of the 27 qualifiers for a profit of £47.50. The early foals (January or February) were four from 11 for a profit of £60.50. Four of the seven beaten horses reached a place (12-1, 8-1, 13-2 and 11-2) and MOOD ALTERING, a general 12-1 shot at the time of writing, looks worth a punt.
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