Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Beverley, Southwell and Killarney for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, May 14th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
BEVERLEY 3.45
SOUND REASON (system – David O’Meara, second run for the yard, turf handicaps)
David O’Meara has a respectable record at second time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, especially in turf handicaps. Had we backed all 245 qualifiers we’d have found the winner on 45 occasions (18.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £12.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 35.58, A/E = 1.26). Those who had finished in the top four on their stable debut were 34 from 121 (28.1%) for a profit of £27.11. SOUND REASON finished a respectable fourth at Pontefract on last month’s stable debut, despite the very soft ground being against him, and won over course and distance off a 4lb higher mark for Kevin Ryan last summer.
SOUTHWELL 4.30
GRIVETANA (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham has a good record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, scoring with 17 of the 44 qualifiers (38.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £58.28 to a £1 level stake at SP. GRIVETANA was a faller at Hereford on her final start for Paul Nicholls but has been freshened up since and is worth chancing.
KILLARNEY 5.20
THOR’S HAMMER (system – Night Of Thunder, good to soft or softer going)
Progeny of the sire Night Of Thunder are 87 from 471 (18.5%) on good to soft or softer going (judged on race times, not the official verdict) for a profit of £80.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 71.99, A/E = 1.21). THOR’S HAMMER looked in need of a return to today’s 1m trip when runner-up at Gowran Park last time and can go one better.
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