Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew bids to get the new week off to a flyer with three stats-based picks at Catterick, Windsor and Wolverhampton on Monday, May 13th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CATTERICK 3.17
ZAPHEA (system – Iain Jardine, last time out winners, recent run)
In-form Iain Jardine has a great record with last time out winners, especially those who were returned to the within 20 days, scoring with 82 of the 296 qualifiers (27.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £36.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran on turf (Flat and jumps combined) were 66 from 217 (30.4%) for a profit of £59.47. He’s three from three on this angle so far this year and perhaps recent Musselburgh winner ZAPHEA can make it four from four.
WINDSOR 7.05
PARTISAN HERO (system – David Loughnane, stable switchers, handicaps)
David Loughnane has a useful record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, especially with the handicappers. Since the beginning of 2019, he’s scored with 15 of the 79 qualifiers (19%) for a profit of £23.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Two of the three qualifiers who ran at Windsor did the business (14-1 and 7-2) and PARTISAN HERO, ex-Dermot Weld, looks worth an interest. Loughnane’s only previous ‘switcher’ to come from the Weld yard was an 8-1 winner at Chelmsford.
WOLVERHAMPTON 9.00
SPECIALIST VIEW (system – Expert Eye, won last time out)
Progeny of Expert Eye have a good record when bidding to follow up a win, landing 22 of their 77 starts (expected winners = 15.81, A/E = 1.39). We’d have made a small loss at SP (-£0.49) had we bet all the qualifiers but those who were returning to the track within a fortnight were 12 from 21 for a profit of £23.78 (expected winners = 6.14, A/E = 1.95). SPECIALIST VIEW won with plenty in hand at Southwell a fortnight ago and can follow up, despite her wide draw.
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