With the end of the season approaching, spots for the Champions League, Europa League, and Conference League are still available. SportsLens provides a comprehensive breakdown of the qualifying positions and analyses which Premier League sides will qualify.
Alongside the gripping title race and the fight to avoid relegation, the Premier League is bracing for an exhilarating late scramble to secure the last European spots this season.
Aston Villa are well-positioned to secure the fourth Champions League spot, marking what would be a remarkable achievement for Unai Emery’s squad.
Despite a recent downturn in form for Ange Postecoglou’s side, Tottenham Hotspur still have a mathematical chance of securing the fourth Champions League spot, keeping them in contention, albeit with a sense of unease from the Villa.
Manchester United, on the other hand, are unexpectedly contending for sixth place, as both Newcastle United and Chelsea are staging impressive comebacks in the latter part of their challenging seasons.
How Many European Places Are There?
With changes to the competition’s format next season, Serie A and the Bundesliga secured an additional fifth place in the Champions League, leaving the Premier League with its usual four spots.
Following these changes, securing fifth place ensures a spot in the Europa League next season, while sixth place guarantees entry to the Europa Conference League. This arrangement was solidified after Liverpool, already qualified for the Champions League, as they won the EFL Cup in February.
However, the winners of the FA Cup also qualify for the Europa League. Should Manchester City, having already secured a Champions League spot, defeat Manchester United in the FA Cup final, the sixth-placed team would then earn qualification for the Europa League, while the seventh-placed team would gain entry to the Europa Conference League.
Should the scenario be that Manchester United win the FA Cup and finish in sixth place, then the seventh-placed team would still qualify for the Conference League.
On the other hand, if the Red Devils were to beat City and finish outside of the top six, then they would earn a Europa League spot, while the team finishing sixth would then qualify for the Europa Conference League.
Who Will Qualify For European Football?
Aston Villa
- Current Position: 4th
- Points: 67 (36 games played)
- Goal Difference: +20
- Remaining fixtures: Liverpool (H), Crystal Palace (A)
Securing fourth place and a remarkable comeback to the Champions League will be guaranteed if Tottenham falter in any of their remaining three matches.
If Spurs manage to win their final three matches, Aston Villa will likely need just one win or two draws to secure their position. However, they’ll be hoping to cement their spot without relying on these outcomes.
Tottenham Hotspur
- Current Position: 5th
- Points: 60 (played 35 games)
- Goal Difference: +11
- Remaining fixtures: Burnley (H), Man City (H), Sheffield United (A)
Following a disappointing run of four consecutive losses, Tottenham must now win their remaining three games to maintain their hopes of securing a top-four finish. Ange Postecoglou faces a tough challenge, as this includes a home fixture against Manchester City, who are in contention for the title.
Despite their recent form, Tottenham should be comfortably secure in fifth place. On paper, they are expected to gather sufficient points against Burnley and the already relegated Sheffield United on the final day to cement their position.
Newcastle United
- Current Position: 6th
- Points: 56 (played 35 games)
- Goal Difference: +22
- Remaining fixtures: Brighton (H), Man United (A), Brentford (A)
The Magpies are currently in pole position for sixth place, which would grant them entry into the Europa League, unless Manchester United win the FA Cup and finish below them in the table.
The upcoming visit to Old Trafford on Wednesday is pivotal. Securing a draw would be beneficial, considering their superior goal difference over Chelsea.
Chelsea
- Current Position: 7th
- Points: 54 (played 35 games)
- Goal Difference: +11
- Remaining fixtures: Forest (A), Brighton (A), Bournemouth (H)
Wins against Tottenham and West Ham have sparked a mood change in the atmosphere at Stamford Bridge. These wins have also revitalised Chelsea’s prospects of securing a place in Europe.
While Mauricio Pochettino’s team arguably has a more favourable set of remaining fixtures, they would still require Newcastle to lose at least one of their games in order to overtake Eddie Howe’s side and secure sixth place.
Fifth place is still within Chelsea’s reach if they win all their remaining matches. However, for Chelsea to secure fifth place, they would need Spurs to lose at least two games or fail to win any of their final three matches. Additionally, the Blues would also require Newcastle to drop points in at least two of their remaining matches.
Manchester United
- Current Position: 8th
- Points: 54 (played 35 games)
- Goal Difference: -3
- Remaining fixtures: Arsenal (H), Newcastle (H), Brighton (A)
Erik ten Hag’s team has secured only one victory in their last seven Premier League matches, which came against bottom-side Sheffield United at home. Additionally, they have the most difficult set of remaining fixtures among the teams directly above them in the table.
Securing a draw against Arsenal and a win against Newcastle could enhance their chances of qualifying for Europe. However, their poor goal difference means they would also need Newcastle to stumble in at least one of their matches against Burnley or Brentford, along with Chelsea dropping points in their fixtures.
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