Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 4-1 Ayr winner FIVER FRIDAY on Monday and has four selections at the Punchestown Festival and Yarmouth on Tuesday, April 30th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PUNCHESTOWN 3.05
IMMORTAL FLAME (system – Tom Lacey, handicap hurdles)
Tom Lacey has a fine record with his handicap hurdlers, scoring with 132 of his 602 such runners (21.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £134.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has three runners in this 2m3.5f contest and IMMORTAL FLAME, although the biggest price of the trio (16-1) at the time of writing, could be the pick. The son of Fame And Glory, like many of his sire’s progeny, has improved from the age of eight and he arrives here in good form.
YARMOUTH 3.50
LORD OF LOVE (system – John Gosden, first-time hood, turf)
Since the beginning of 2014, the Gosdens have a 24 from 68 record with turf runners in a first-time hood (35.3%) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £121.17 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.76, A/E = 2.23). LORD OF LOVE could only finish sixth of nine when 11-2 for Kempton maiden on his debut six months ago but the switch to turf and headgear could make the difference.
YARMOUTH 5.00
BAILEYS POLKA DOT (system – Amy Murphy, headgear removed)
Amy Murphy does well when removing headgear from one of her runners and BAILEYS POLKA DOT, a dual minor winner in France, might fare better with the headgear left off after her 80-1 last of ten at Kempton on February’s British debut. Her yard is in much better form now (four winners from their last six runners, 22-1, 13-2, 6-1 and 9-5f) and the booking of in-form Silvestre De Sousa is encouraging, as is his stall 10 of 11 draw. The three-year-old has also undergone wind surgery since that Kempton defeat.
PUNCHESTOWN 6.00
EMBASSY GARDENS (system – Willie Mullins, no headgear, wore first-time hood on latest start)
Willie Mullins’ runners who go without headgear, having worn a first-time hood for their latest outing, are seven from 19 in the past five years for a profit of £26.38 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who finished second or third in that hooded outing had form figures of 111211 (5-6), suggesting that EMBASSY GARDENS, runner-up to Corbetts Cross when fitted with the headgear at the Cheltenham festival, can go one better this time.
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