Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 11-1 Perth winner MONTY SEARLE on Wednesday and has three stats-based picks on Thursday, April 25th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
BEVERLEY 2.10
LOVE PLUS ONE (system – Land Force, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Land Force have a good record on soft or heavy going (based on race times, not the official verdict), winning five of their 25 starts for a profit of £48.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. The Ollie Pears-trained LOVE PLUS ONE, backed from 33-1 into 20-1 when the betting first opened on Wednesday afternoon, cost only 1,500gns but two of her half-siblings won first or second time out and she could be worth chancing.
HUNTINGDON 4.35
HEY BROTHER (system – Alan King, first-time visor)
HEY BROTHER has finished well beaten in his three runs over hurdles but looks a likely improver for switch to handicap chase company. Second by half a length in his sole point-to-point outing, the seven-year-old made the frame in two bumpers before his modest hurdles campaign and the first-time visor is an interesting angle. Alan King is 14 from 68 (20.6% strike-rate) in the current century when using this headgear and backing the qualifiers blind would have returned a profit of £63.28 to a £1 level stake at SP.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
THANKS DAD (system – Twilight Son, second time out, beaten by 7L or less on debut)
Progeny of Twilight Son have a poor record on their debuts, landing just four of their 197 starts (2% strike-rate) for a loss of £175.59 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, those who were beaten while finishing within seven lengths of the winner on debut went in to land 20 of their 80 starts at the second time of asking for a profit of £23.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 13.14, A/E = 1.52). THANKS DAD finished a fine 80-1 third from a wide draw over course and distance on his recent debut and can go two places better from a more favourable draw this evening.
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17/03/23
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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