Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found 11-1 Exeter winner KICK UP A STORM on Friday and has six stats-based picks on Saturday, April 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
BANGOR 2.15
CHARLIE’S GLANCE (system – Andrew Martin, handicap chasers)
Andrew Martin has a cracking record with his handicap chasers, scoring with 16 of the 86 qualifiers since 2016 (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £122.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 8.98, A/E = 1.78). All the winners came in Class 3 or lower company and CHARLIE’S GLANCE could be the answer to this Class 5 contest. The eight-year-old finished a creditable third over hurdles at Fakenham earlier this month on his first run back after a wind operation and was a winner at Huntingdon in February on his most recent assignment over fences.
NEWBURY 2.40
JAMES’S DELIGHT (system – Clive Cox, second run since gelded)
Clive Cox has a good recent record with runners on their second start after a gelding operation, scoring with 15 of the 58 qualifiers since racing resumed after lockdown in June 2020 for a profit of £52.04 (expected winners = 8.24, A/E = 1.82). Those who won last time out – as JAMES’S DELIGHT did – were three from seven and the son of Invincible Army could go well despite the steep rise in class since his impressive comeback win in a Pontefract handicap.
BANGOR 3.25
CAMARRATE (system – Donald McCain, handicap hurdlers at Bangor, 1-28 days absence)
Donald McCain does well with his handicap hurdlers at Bangor, one of his local tracks, scoring with 47 of the 146 qualifiers (32.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £145.16 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 24.28, A/E = 1.94). CAMMRATE broke his hurdles duck in a Fakenham maiden last time and is take to make a winning handicap debut.
BANGOR 4.00
FAR SIGHT (system – Harry Derham stable switchers)
Harry Derham has made a fine start to his training career, and he does especially well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 17 of the 42 qualifiers for a profit of £60.28. FAR SIGHT, ex- Philip Hobbs & Johnson White, finished third at Sandown last month and this Newton Abbot winner should be suited by today’s sharp left-handed track.
AYR 4.10
I LOVE MY BAIE (system – 3m+ handicap hurdles, last-time out winners, speed angle)
Last-time out winners have a solid record in handicap hurdles over 3m or further, especially those who clocked a Proform speed figure of 67 or more when scoring. Since the beginning of 2012, 1333 of the 483 qualifiers (27.5% strike-rate) were successful for a profit of £136.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 101.92, A/E = 1.31). I LOVE MY BAIE clocked a fast time when causing a 22-1 upset at Newbury last time and runner-up Pretending, beaten by just over one length, franked the form when winning well backed at Cheltenham the other day. The pair pulled 13 lengths clear of the third and the Crawford-trained six-year-old is worth chancing to follow up despite stamina reservations.
BRIGHTON 4.40
SUPER DINO (system – Kodiac, first-time blinkers, 5f-7fm turf)
Progeny of the sire Kodiac have a useful record over 5f-f7 on turf, landing 20 of their 141 starts (14.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £64.90 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.0, A/E = 1.82). SUPER DINO is going to be a huge price (50-1 best at the time of writing) for this 5f maiden after finishing last of eight on his debut at Southwell last month and he’s worth chancing to small stakes.
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