Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Cheltenham, Newmarket and Kempton Park for his four stats-based picks on Wednesday, April 17th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 2.05
ZESTFUL (system – Postponed, 4yo+, turf)
Progeny of the sire Postponed, aged four or older, have a 22 from 104 record on turf (Flat and jumps combined) for a profit of £31.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 11.93, A/E = 1.84). ZESTFUL pulled up in the mud at Cheltenham’s December meeting but her best efforts have come on better ground in spring and she can bounce back with conditions to suit.
CHELTENHAM 3.15
MIDNIGHT OUR FRED (system – damsire Midnight Legend, chases)
Horses with Midnight Legend as their damsire have a 38 from 224 record over fences (17%) for a profit of £46.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those running over 2m6f or further are 20 from 118 for a profit of £65.44. MIDNIGHT OUR FRED, runner-up here the last twice, was a winner at Wexford last spring and arrives here fresher than most.
NEWAMRKET 4.10
MAGIC MILD (system – Havana Grey 2yos, 5f, turf)
Juvenile progeny of the sire Havana Grey have a fine record over 5f on turf, with 42 of the 190 qualifiers scoring (22.1%) for a profit of £33.27 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAGIC MILD, potentially well drawn in stall 12 for this 5f fillies’ maiden, could offer a spot of value against likely favourite Tequila.
KEMPTON 8.30
TEDDY BROWN (system – Marco Botti, first run since gelded)
Marco Botti’s TEDDY BROWN was well beaten at Wolverhampton last time but the gelding operation, switch to handicap company and first-time blinkers could all bring about improvement. His trainer has a fine recent record with runners on their first start after a gelding operation, scoring with ten of the 31 qualifiers since the beginning pf 2022 for a profit of £68.25 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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