Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew has been in good form this week and has and has three recommended bets/trades on day 1 of the Aintree Festival (Thursday, April 11th). Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
AINTREE 1.45
Paul Nicholls has a poor record in the Manifesto Novices’ Chase and GINNY’S DESTINY looks worth opposing in Thursday’s opener at Aintree. Here’s the full list of his recent runners…
Year / Horse / Finishing Position / SP
2009 / Chapoturgeon / Fell / 15-8
2010 / The Nightingale / 3rd / 11-4
2011 / Royal Charm / 3rd / 100-30
2012 / Al Ferof / 3rd / 6-5
2012 / Cristal Bonus / 2nd / 7-1
2013 / Fago / 5th / 11-2
2014 / Dodging Bullets / 5th / 9-1
2015 / Vibrato Valtat / 2nd / 9-4
2016 / Bouvreuil / 4th / 16-1
2017 Frodon / 5th / 5-1
2018 / Modus / 5th / 14-1
2018 / Cyrname / 4th / 2-1
2021 / Hitman / 3rd / 100-30
2022 / Pic D’Orhy / PU / 7-2
2023 / Stage Star / 5th / 6-4
…zero from 15 in total against an expected number of winners of 3.16. Ginny’s Destiny has form figures of 1112 (3-4) since his chase debut, but all four runs came at Cheltenham and this sharper track is far from certain to suit. Sell in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market.
Recommendation: Oppose GINNY’S DESTINY in Aintree 1.45
AINTREE 3.30
Controversial Coral Cup winner LANGER DAN doesn’t look out of place in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle and can cause a minor upset. Last month’s comfortable Cheltenham win took his record in the spring to 612B111 (4-7), with the sixth place when beaten by less than five lengths when 20-1 for the 2020 Fred Winter. He has disappointed on his last two visits to Aintree but both came in November/December and his only previous spring run at this venue saw him land the 2m4f handicap hurdle on this card in 2022. Buy in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market or take a fixed odds price.
Recommendation: Back LANGER DAN in Aintree 3.30
AINTREE 4.40
The Red Rum Handicap Chase has not been a happy hunting ground for horses who contested the Grand Annual Handicap Chase at Cheltenham on their latest start, with only one of the 63 qualifiers proving successful since 2010 (expected winners = 4.57, A/E = 0.22). This year, the front three in the betting – SAINT ROI, UNEXPECTED PARTY and PATH D’OROUX – all prepped in that contest and can be opposed. With the trio numbered 2, 3 and 4 on the racecard a buy of DOUBLE NUMBER OF WINNER with Spreadex looks the best method to field against them.
Recommendation: Buy DOUBLE NUMBER OF WINNER in Aintree 4.40
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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