Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew warms up for Aintree with four stats-based selections at Lingfield, Wolverhampton, Leopardstown and Market Rasen on Wednesday, April 10th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
LINGFIELD 1.52
MEDICIAN STAR (system – Michael Bell, first run after a gelding operation, handicaps)
The Michael Bell-trained MEDICIAN STAR hardly set the world alight in three quick runs in 7f maiden/novice contests last autumn but can be expected to do better now gelded and handicapping over a longer trip. Since the beginning of 2010, his trainer is 28 from 133 (21.1%) with his newly-gelded handicap runners for a profit of £61.13 (expected winners = 19.34, A/E = 1.45).
WOLVERHAMPTON 3.10
MADEMOISELLECANCAN (system – Tom Dascombe, restricted novice stakes, not debut)
Tom Dascombe has a cracking record in restricted novice races with experienced horses, scoring with ten of the 29 qualifiers (34.5%) for a profit of £32.64 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. Those who ran relatively early in the season (March to July) were nine from 18 (+£40.39) and MADEMOISELLECANCAN, second at 16-1 in a course and distance maiden last time, can go one better.
LEOPARDSTOWN 4.15
TRIDENT STAR (system – Zoustar, 7f, ran over 1m+ last time out)
Progeny of the sire Zoustar often struggle to see out trips of 1m or further and make good bets, albeit from a small sample size, when dropping back to 7f. Three of the 13 qualifiers won for a profit of £21.50 (four more made the frame, including at 125-1) and 13-race maiden TRIDENT STAR, who weakened into a 50-1 ninth of 14 on his seasonal/stable debut at Dundalk last time, could go well back in trip now returned to turf (assuming the meeting passes a 7.30am inspection).
MARKET RASEN 5.10
TYPHOON FLYER (system – Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole, third run in a bumper)
The yard of Dr Richard Newland & Jamie Insole does well with bumper horses who are having their third career start, scoring with six of the 15 qualifiers for a profit of £20.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. TYPHOON FLYER, runner-up in a Naas bumper in December, can make a winning start for his new connections.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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