Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew bids to end the week on a high with four stats-based selections at Southwell, Plumpton & Market Rasen on Easter Sunday (March 31st).. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
SOUTHWELL 2.05
DEAL MAKER (system – Charlie Johnston, 2yo fillies on debut, 5f-6f)
The Johnston yard does well with juvenile debutantes in sprint races, scoring with 53 of the 237 qualifiers (22.4%) since the beginning of 2012 for a profit of £84.61 to the usual £1 stake (expected winners = 38.37, A/E = 1.38). DEAL MAKER, a half-sister to six winners include Salute The Soldier (now a successful sire), looks a likely type on paper and can land an interesting fillies’ novice contest.
PLUMPTON 3.05
TWO TO TANGO (system – Emma Lavelle, first run in a handicap hurdle, finished first or second last time out)
Emma Lavelle has a solid record with her handicap hurdle debutants, especially those who ran first or second on their most recent outing. Since the beginning of 2005, her score is 16 winners from 68 runners (23.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £42.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. TWO TO TANGO found only INTO THE PARK (a subsequent handicap hurdle winner off 120) too good in a maiden hurdle at Newbury last time and his opening mark of 108 could be on the lenient side.
PLUMPTON 4.15
KNICKERBOCKERGLORY (system – Dan Skelton, first-time cheekpieces, finished fifth or worse last time out)
Dan Skelton has a useful record with his runners in first-time cheekpieces, especially those who finished out of the frame on their latest start. He’s scored with 21 of the 102 qualifiers for a profit of £59.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. KNICKERBOCKERGLORY, fifth of 16 in the Imperial Cup at Sandown last time, is taken to bounce back in the new headgear.
MARKET RASEN 5.04
HARJO (system – Charlie Longsdon chasers, first-time cheekpieces)
Charlie Longsdon has a solid record with chasers wearing first-time cheekpieces, scoring with 18 of the 75 qualifiers (24% strike-rate) for a profit of £27.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.79, A/E = 1.67). HARJO jumped out to his left when runner-up at right-handed Hereford last time and should have more to offer now returned to a left-handed venue.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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