Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
It’s day three of the festival (Thursday, March 14th) and Andrew has five stats-based picks at Cheltenham and Chelmsford. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CHELTENHAM 3.30
TEAHUPOO (system – Stayers Hurdle, 6-7yos)
Simply backing all runners aged six or seven in the Stayers Hurdle would have found eight winners from 59 bets in the past ten years for a profit of £59.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.40, A/E = 1.82). Those rested for more than four weeks were eight from 43 (+£75.88) and TEAHUPOO, unbeaten in seven starts on actual heavy going (based on race times, not the official going verdict), has been off the track for 105 days since his reappearance success and is likely to prove hard to beat.
CHELTENHAM 4.10
SHAKEM UP’ARRY (system – Stable Plate, last time out winners)
In the past ten years, last time out winners have a five from 42 record in this 2m4.5f handicap chase and backing them all would have returned a profit of £9.08. Those who made the running or raced prominently were four from 11 (+£23.08) and Ben Pauling’s SHAKEM UP’ARRY, never far away when scoring comfortably over track and trip on New Year’s Day when we last saw him, could prove to be the pick of the four qualifiers.
CHELTENHAM 4.50
MOLLYS MANGO (system – Harry Derham, stable switchers)
Harry Derham has made a great start to his training career and he does especially well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 16 of the 39 qualifiers (41% strike-rate) for a profit of £60.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. MOLLYS MANGO takes a big step up in class after winning a maiden hurdle for Gordon Elliott but could reward each-way support at juicy odds.
CHELMSFORD 6.30
MAGIC FLUKE (system – Marco Botti all-weather handicappers, fresh)
Marco Botti has a fine record with his all-weather handicappers who are returning from a break of 40 days or longer, scoring with 57 of the 333 qualifiers (17.1%) since the spring of 2016 for a profit of £116.11 to the usual £1 level stake at SP. MAGIC FLUKE contributed with a 22-1 Newcastle win last November on the back of a 62-day break and has been rested for 52 days since his Kempton runner-up effort in January.
CHELMSFORD 8.30
CLIONIA (system – Mick Appleby, first-time hood, filles and mares)
In the past ten years, Mick Appleby has an eight from 44 record when using a first-time hood on one of his female runners for a profit of £137.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.46, A/E = 3.25). CLIONIA was too free in the first-time blinkers when sixth of 12 at Wolverhampton on her latest assignment and the headgear switch could help.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today. Plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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