Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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It’s Day One of the Cheltenham Festival (Tuesday, March 12th) and Andrew has four recommended bets/trades in his bid to get the meeting off to a flyer. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2024 – BIGGEST WINNING SP
In the run-up to the Cheltenham festival, we hear plenty about the lack of competitiveness, small fields and dominance of Willie Mullins but it’s still rare not to have at least one big-priced winner over the four days. Last year, Premier Magic took the BIGGEST WINNING SP honours at 66-1 (we also had two 33-1 winners), while 50-1 shot Commander Of Fleet did the business in 2022. Jeff Kidder’s 80-1 success in the 2021 Fred Winter was a boon for SP buyers and It Came To Pass came to the rescue in 2020. In 2019 it was 66-1 Grand Annual winner Croco Bay who caused the biggest upset and we also had a pair of 50-1 winners that year. Spreadex has set this year’s BIGGEST WINNING SP market at 47.5-49.0 and that could be on the low side. Six of the eight winning 50-1+ shots across the last five Cheltenham festivals came on Thursday/Friday and another angle is to sit out the first two days, hope for no shock results, and go in ahead of Thursday’s racing when the spread has dropped.
Recommendation: Buy BIGGEST WINNING SP at Cheltenham Festival 2024
CHELTENHAM 1.30
Nine of the last ten renewals of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have gone to an Irish trainer or Nicky Henderson but we’ve had plenty of big-priced placed horses from the smaller British yards and I fancy FAVOUR AND FORTUNE to reward buyers at 5 in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market (fixed odds punters might want to play each-way at 25-1). Alan King’s six-year-old has form figures of 1101122 (4-7), with the sole unplaced effort coming in last year’s Champion Bumper when third best of the British-trained runners. He was not helped by racing in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail that day and, with the likely strong pace sure to suit this sometimes-keen sort, he can sneak a minor placing or even cause a huge upset.
Recommendation: Back FAVOUR AND FORTUNE in Cheltenham 1.30
CHELTENHAM 2.10
At the time of writing GAELIC WARRIOR was trading as favourite for the Arkle (15-18) but the Willie Mullins-trained six-year-old has a clear preference for right-handed tracks and looks vulnerable at left-handed Cheltenham. The son of Maxios impressed in his fist two chase starts, scoring at right-handed Punchestown and Limerick, but he jumped persistently out to his right and was beaten when unseating his rider behind Fact To File at Leopardstown last month. He’s been beaten at the last two Cheltenham festivals and, even if bagging the stands’ side rail in the straight to correct his wayward jumping tendencies, the damage might already have been done by the. Sell at 15 in the Spreadex 50-25-10 market. Fixed odds punters may want to side with JPR ONE (17-2 with Spreadex) whose record left-handed over fences reads 1U1 (2-3) with the non-completion most unlucky. He had the race in the bad when stumbling/unseating on jumping the last fence.
Recommendation: Oppose GAELIC WARRIOR in Cheltenham 2.10
CHELTENHAM 4.50
The ‘Fred Winter’ has been part of the Cheltenham festival for 19 years and with nine winners priced between 25-1 and 80-1 punters could be excused for going for a pint instead of a bet. The race seems to be getting progressively more difficult and simply backing all 266 runners in the past 12 years would have seen us make a profit of £60.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+22.74% on turnover). There are two distinct types of winner – 1) those who finished fourth or worse last time out, usually in a Graded race under a patient ride, and who were now dropping in class, and 2) – those who showed promise without winning in their earlier starts, often in Graded company, who won a low-grade contest last time out to ensure their handicap mark was high enough to get in the race. There’s a group of runners that falls in between these two stools – horses who ran second or third in their prep race in Britain or Ireland. No less than 159 have lined up since this race’s inception and all were defeated (expected number of winners = 6.71). This year, the two at the head of the market at the time of writing – Milan Tino and Lark In The Mornin – both fall into this category and can be taken on. The best way to do so is to buy SP OF WINNER at 15 with Spreadex.
Recommendation: Buy SP OF WINNER in Cheltenham 4.50
RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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All of the most popular horse racing spread betting markets like Winning Favourites, the 50-30-20-10 Race Index, Winning Distances, Favourites and Squared Numbers are included. When it comes sports spread betting sites in the UK today, Spreadex are number one. Check out SportsLens every day for more horse racing spread betting tips from Andrew Mount, complete with detailed analysis.
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