Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to the jumps meeting and Plumpton, Stratford and Taunton for three stats-based picks on Monday, March 11th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
PLUMPTON 2.30
NATHAN WALKER (system – Blue Bresil, young chasers)
Hat-tricker seeker Sir Rock look sure to go well in this 2m3.5f novices’ handicap chase but NATHAN WALKER could be worth a small interest at a much bigger price. Young (aged seven or less) progeny of the sire Blue Bresil are a potent force over fences, landing 40 of their 169 starts (23.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £81.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. Kerian Burke’s six-year-old could only finish a remote fourth over 2m1f here last time but that was his chase debut, and the experience would have been needed.
STRATFORD 3.20
FRANKIE FAULKNER (system – Malinas, 2m4f+, soft or heavy going)
Progeny of the sire Malinas have a solid record over 2m4f or further on actual soft or heavy going (based on race times, not the official going), landing 76 of their 418 starts (18.2%) for a profit of £54.06 to a £1 level stake at SP (prior to Sunday’s racing). FRANKIE FAULKNER took a step back in the right-direction when third to Whosmydaddy at Musselburgh last month and the winner has since followed up off an 8lb higher mark. The cheekpieces, worn for the first time that day, are retained and he should go well.
TAUNTON 4.10
MOLLIE BROWN (system – Anthony Honeyball, first run in a handicap hurdle)
Anthony Honeyball does well with handicap hurdler debutants, scoring with 29 of the 118 qualifiers (24.6%) for a profit of £79.83 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 17.89, A/E = 1.62). Dartmoor Pirate, a qualifier in the EBF Final at Sandown last Saturday, placed fourth at 12-1 and perhaps MOLLIE BROWN can go three places better. The six-year-old was pulled up at Wincanton when we last saw her but has had a wind operation since that effort.
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