We’ve compared every team’s Premier League run in to see who has the toughest set of fixtures remaining in the closing stages of the season.
Every season, fans debate vigorously who’s been given the ‘hardest’ set of fixtures at the business end of the season. With the title race on a knife edge and the relegation debate far from over, there’s plenty to play for at both ends of the table.
But while what makes a game ‘easy’ or ‘hard’ is often subjective, we at Sportslens have taken an analytical view. We have compared every club’s remaining Premier League matches, ranking their opponents’ league positions.
By taking the average league position of their opponents, we can say once and for all who has the toughest Premier League run in on paper.
There will still be caveats, of course. The order of fixtures and if they play a team at home or away naturally make a big difference.
But in terms of an unbiased, factual and objective analysis, there’s no better way of comparing.
So let’s take a look at every team’s Premier League run in, and see how it could affect the title race, European qualification, and relegation battle.
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— Premier League (@premierleague) March 5, 2024
Who Has The Toughest Premier League Run In?
| Team | Remaining Opponents’ Average League Position |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa | 8.2 |
| Crystal Palace | 8.9 |
| Brighton | 9.0 |
| Manchester City | 9.1 |
| West Ham | 9.4 |
| Liverpool | 9.5 |
| Arsenal | 9.9 |
| Wolves | 10.0 |
| Tottenham | 10.1 |
| Luton | 10.6 |
| Chelsea | 10.6 |
| Fulham | 10.6 |
| Sheffield United | 11.2 |
| Burnley | 11.3 |
| Brentford | 11.6 |
| Manchester United | 11.7 |
| Everton | 11.9 |
| Bournemouth | 12.0 |
| Newcastle | 12.2 |
| Nottingham Forest | 12.4 |
Title Race – Liverpool, Manchester City, Arsenal
Liverpool – Opponents’ Average Position: 9.5
Jurgen Klopp’s Reds have one of the tougher runs on paper, with their remaining opponents averaging a league position of 9.5 at the time of writing.
Liverpool face Manchester City on Sunday 10 March at Anfield. That fixture will likely be decisive in deciding where the title end up.
A win for either side will see them above the other, while a draw could see Arsenal move to the top of the league if they win.
Liverpool’s other tough fixtures include playing the teams in fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh. Their easiest game is against bottom club Sheffield United on 4 April.
Manchester City – Opponents’ Average Position: 9.1
But despite Liverpool’s difficult fixtures, Manchester City still have a harder Premier League run in on paper. Pep Guardiola’s team start with Sunday’s trip to Anfield, followed by Arsenal at the Etihad.
They then play Aston Villa three days later, meaning they face all three of the other top four sides back-to-back. City also still need to play bogey-team Tottenham away from home, and only have one match against the current bottom three.
If the Champions are to retain their title, they will have to do it the hard way and will certainly have earned it. City have the fourth-hardest set of fixtures in the Premier League according to opponents’ league position.
Arsenal – Opponents’ Average Position: 9.9
Arsenal have the easiest Premier League run in of the three title challengers, on paper at least.
They do travel to the Etihad in a crucial match, as well as hosting fourth-placed Aston Villa, but their opponents are lower in the table on average than either City or Liverpool’s.
Mikel Arteta’s Gunners do not need to play Liverpool, but do have a North London derby at Tottenham to look forward to.
If ever there was a time to take all three points from your rivals it’s during the closing stages of one of the tightest title races in recent memory.
Battle For Top Four – Aston Villa, Tottenham
Aston Villa – Opponents’ Average Position: 8.2
Villa may be five points above Tottenham as it stands in the race for Champions League football, but they have statistically the toughest Premier League run in on paper.
Unai Emery’s side play every other top five team besides themselves before the end of the season.
Trips to the Etihad and Emirates to play City and Arsenal are followed by hosting Liverpool, while their next game is Tottenham at home on Sunday 10 March.
They also play none of the current bottom five teams, with 15th-placed Brentford their lowest-ranked remaining opponent.
Tottenham Hotspur – Opponents’ Average Position: 10.1
While Spurs are behind Villa in the top four race, they do have a game in hand. Win that and beat Villa when the pair meet this weekend, and they will have climbed above the West Midlands club.
Tottenham’s Premier League run in is a tale of extremes. They play all of the current top four, hosting City and Arsenal and travelling to Anfield and Villa Park.
But Ange Postecoglou’s men also play each of the bottom four sides, and will be expecting to take maximum points from those fixtures.
Their top four hopes hinge on how they fare at Villa on Sunday.
Final European Places – Manchester United, West Ham, Newcastle, Brighton, Wolves
Manchester United – Opponents’ Average Position: 11.7
It’s been an up-and-down season for Eric Ten Hag’s Red Devils. United’s loss in the Manchester derby sees them 11 points below fourth-placed Aston Villa.
Their chances of making the Champions League are slim to none, but they do have one of the easier run ins on paper.
While Manchester United do still have to host Liverpool and Arsenal, those are their only games against current top seven teams.
With Sheffield United and Burnley still to play, there are plenty of so-called ‘easy’ games for them to take points from, though United have often struggled in these fixtures in recent times.
West Ham United – Opponents’ Average Position: 9.4
Vying with United for Europa League football are West Ham. The Irons have a run in on the more difficult end of the scale, playing four of the top five.
Their trip to Manchester City stands out as the toughest fixture, as does the visit of Liverpool on 27 April.
West Ham’s best chances for points come against two of the bottom three clubs, with games against Burnley and Luton Town still to come.
Newcastle United – Opponents’ Average Position: 12.2
Newcastle have the second-easiest Premier League run in according to the stats. The Magpies play none of the top four between now and the end of the season.
And Eddie Howe’s men still have to face five of the bottom seven teams in the table, giving them plenty of chance to close the gap to the likes of United and West Ham.
Brighton & Hove Albion – Opponents’ Average Position: 9.0
Brighton have the third-hardest fixtures on paper. They play all four of the top sides, as well as Manchester United and Newcastle.
Burnley are the only team in the relegation zone that they still have to play, though they do also face 17th-placed Nottingham Forest this weekend.
Wolverhampton Wanderers – Opponents’ Average Position: 10.0
Wolves’ Premier League run in is somewhere in the middle, as reflected by their opponent’s average league position being exactly 10th.
They do have to play all of the top four sides, but also face Forest, Luton and Burnley which averages out their fixture list to where it is.
However, with Aston Villa, Liverpool and Manchester City all to play away from home, it is certainly a more challenging run in than the average position indicates.
Mid Table Obscurity – Chelsea, Fulham, Bournemouth
Chelsea – Opponents’ Average Position: 10.6
Chelsea’s torrid time this season seems no closer to ending. Their opponents’ average position as it stands is 10.6, putting them right in the middle of things compared to their rivals.
The Blues don’t have to play Liverpool or City again this season, but must face every team from Arsenal in third down to Brighton in ninth.
Games against Sheffield United and Burnley help lower their average, but it is still a brutal run in for Mauricio Pochettino’s men.
Fulham – Opponents’ Average Position: 10.6
A particularly big carrot dangling in front of Fulham is the possibility of finishing above West London rivals Chelsea.
Last season was the first time in 40 years they had ended a campaign above their neighbours, so to do it back-to-back would be special for the Cottagers.
They have difficult games to come, with Liverpool and City still to play, but their run-in is almost identical to Chelsea in terms of their opposition’s average position in the table.
Bournemouth – Opponents’ Average Position: 12.0
Bournemouth have done enough to probably be clear of the relegation scrap this season, though they need to improve on recent form to guarantee it.
The Cherries play Arsenal and Villa as their toughest remaining fixtures, but have two games against Luton and one against Sheffield United still to come.
Relegation Battle – Crystal Palace, Brentford, Everton, Nottingham Forest, Luton Town, Burnley, Sheffield United
Crystal Palace – Opponents’ Average Position: 8.9
It’s been a turbulent season for Crystal Palace, though they have picked up some valuable points in recent games. It seems very unlikely they will go down, but they aren’t safe just yet.
The Eagles must navigate the second-toughest Premier League run in of anyone on paper. They play Liverpool, City and Villa, with Luton their only opponent in the bottom three presently.
Brentford – Opponents’ Average Position: 11.6
Brentford are six points clear of the drop at the moment, though Luton could reduce that to three by winning their game in hand.
The Bees travel to Arsenal next in what is their last game against the current top three. Aston Villa, Manchester United and Newcastle will be difficult games, but Brentford still have to play all three of the bottom sides.
Safety is far from guaranteed, but wins against those below them should see them stay up comfortably.
Everton – Opponents’ Average Position: 11.9
Sean Dyche’s Toffees have been boosted by the recent reduction of their points deduction, from ten down to six. This has seen them jump up the table, and are they are now in 16th place.
They also have an ‘easy’ run in on paper, though Manchester City and Arsenal will be a daunting couple of games.
But Everton have their destiny entirely in their own hands, with games against all four of the teams below them still to come. If the Toffees do go down, it will be because they lost these crucial six-pointers.
Nottingham Forest – Opponents’ Average Position: 12.4
No side has an easier Premier League run in on paper than Nottingham Forest, though. The Midlands club host Manchester City on 27 April in what will be a ‘free hit’ for Nuno Espírito Santo and his charges.
But aside from that, they do not play anyone in the current top four before the end of the season. Forest also play every team in the bottom five – besides themselves, obviously.
This gives them plenty of chances to take points off those around them, without too many near-certain losses against the top teams.
Like Everton, Forest’s potential relegation will come through losing these massive games at the bottom end.
Luton Town – Opponents’ Average Position: 10.6
Luton’s attempt at the great escape won’t be helped by their fixtures against Manchester City and Arsenal. The Hatters do have the opportunity to play those directly above them, however.
With both Forest and Everton still to play, winning both of those as well as their game in hand might well be enough to keep them up, if they can nick a few points from elsewhere.
The odds are still heavily against Luton, however.
Burnley – Opponents’ Average Position: 11.3
It’s not over for Burnley just yet, but it’s getting closer by the game. Vincent Kompany’s side desperately need a purple patch if they are to have any hope of survival.
The Clarets are 11 points from safety, and will need to beat Sheffield United, Forest and Everton to even be within touching distance of safety.
They don’t play any of the top four, but will still need several miracles for them to remain the the Premier League.
Sheffield United – Opponents’ Average Position: 11.2
Like Burnley, Sheffield United are on the verge of oblivion in this relegation battle. Level on points with the Clarets, they have the worst goal difference in the division by a mile.
If they are to somehow pull off the seemingly impossible, beating Brentford, Everton and Forest will be their ‘easiest’ games.
Liverpool at Anfield will be a case of damage limitation, but with a -50 goal difference, they might as well throw everything at Jurgen Klopp’s men.
Better to lose 4-1 trying to have a go than 2-0 sitting back and accepting your fate. Survival is out of the question unless something unbelievable happens, but they can at least go down swinging in these final run of games.
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