Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newcastle’s evening all-weather fixture for his three stats-based picks on Tuesday, February 20th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWCASTLE 4.55
PRINCE ACHILLE (system – Jedd O’Keeffe, low-grade all-weather handicaps, January to February)
Jedd O’Keeffe does well in low-grade (Class 5 or 6) all-weather handicaps at this time of year (January to February), scoring with ten of the 33 qualifiers since 2015 (prior to yesterday’s racing) for a profit of £59.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.16, A/E = 2.40). The worry with PRINCE ACHILLE is that he’s been off the track for 141 days (both his wins came after a break of seven days) but he’s been nibbled at in the overnight market and could be worth a small interest.
NEWCASTLE 6.30
THE CALTONIAN (system – Linda Perratt, all-weather, race fit)
Since the beginning of last year, Linda Perratt is 22 from 88 with her all-weather runners (25% strike-rate) for a profit of £75.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who had had at least two runs in the past three months were 22 from 73 (30.1%) for a profit of £90.25. THE CALTONIAN didn’t see out the 7f trip when only eighth of 13 here last time out and is best judged on his 6f record on the all-weather of 112 (2-3).
NEWCASTLE 7.00
FAIRFAX BEAUTY (system – Time Test, Tapeta, 1m+)
Progeny of the sire Time Test have a fair record over distances of 1m or further on Tapeta, landing 13 of their 86 starts (15.1%) for a huge profit of £224.39 to the usual £1 stake. Newcomer FAIRFAX BEAUTY is a huge price but might be able to sneak into the frame.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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