Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Newcastle, Clonmel and Sandown for his four stats-based selections on Thursday, February 15th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
NEWCASTLE 2.50
DEFENCE WITNESS (system – Sandy Thomson, second run over hurdles, winter)
Point-to-point and bumper winner DEFENCE WITNESS looked in need of the experience when an 18-length third to Hasthing at Catterick on his hurdles debut last month and should know more today. Sandy Thomson has a fine record in the depths of winter (November to February) with horses having their second start over hurdles, scoring with 12 of the 53 qualifiers for a profit of £77.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
NEWCASTLE 4.00
LETTHEDUSTSETTLE (system – Tom Lacey, handicap hurdles)
Simply backing all Tom Lacey-trained handicap hurdlers would have found 128 winners from 578 runners (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £140.88 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 97.17, A/E = 1.32). LETTHEDUSTSETTLE arrives here on a hat-trick after a pair of comfortable Catterick wins and can score again.
CLONMEL 4.05
DUTCH SCHULTZ (system – Gavin Cromwell handicap chase debutants, Class 4 or lower)
Gavin Cromwell does well with horses having their first run in a handicap chase, scoring with 18 of the 89 qualifiers for a profit of £18.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. In Class 4 or lower company only, the score is 13 from 46 (28.3%) for a profit of £42.75. DUTCH SCHULTZ never got involved under a patient ride when sixth of nine in a beginners’ chase at Fairyhouse last time and can be expected to improve for the switch to handicap company.
SANDOWN 4.46
HARD RAIN (system – Archie Watson stable debutants, ridden by Brodie Hampson)
Archie Watson has a good record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards, scoring with 36 of the 156 qualifiers for a profit of £44.46 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those ridden by Watson’s wife Brodie Hampson are five from 13 for a profit of £11.10. HARD RAIN, a winner over hurdles in Ireland last year, can make a winning start for his new connections.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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Related
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