Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew found winners ASK ME EARLY (15-2) and SENNOCKIAN (3-1) on Sunday and has three stats-based picks on Monday, February 12th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
CATTERICK 2.30
TAP N GO LEO (system – Malinas, soft or heavy going, 2m4f+)
Progeny of the sire Malinas have a 72 from 393 record (18.3% strike-rate) over 2m4f or further on soft or heavy going (time based, not the official verdict) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £65.06 to a £1 level stake at SP. TAP N GO LEO fared best of those ridden patiently when third in a Warwick maiden hurdle last month and this bumper winner can double his career tally.
CATTERICK 3.00
CONQUEREDALOFEUROPE (system – Catterick chases, won Catterick chase last time out)
Since the beginning of 2010, winning Catterick chasers are 18 from 45 when bidding to follow up in another chase at the same venue. Landing 18 of their 45 starts (40%) for a profit of £19.76 to the usual £1 stake. The Donald McCain-trained CONQUEREDALOFEUROPE finally broke his chase duck over course and distance on heavy ground last time and can go in again.
WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00
MAREFUORI (system – Marco Botti, turf to Tapeta switchers)
Marco Botti has a fantastic record when switching one from turf to Tapeta, including a 55 from 254 haul (21.7% strike-rate) at Wolverhampton for a profit of £68.60 to a £1 level stake at SP. He has two qualifiers in this 9.4f handicap, with MAREFUORI preferred to Caelan. The three-year-old’s two previous runs here have produced a win and a narrow second and he’s been gelded since finishing well beaten at Nottingham last autumn.
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RELATED – Horse racing NAP of the Day – See our free NAP bet today, plus Andy Newton’s ‘Lay of the Day’ tip.
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