Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
Andrew heads to Huntingdon and Newcastle (AW) for his three stats-based picks on Thursday, February 8th. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below..
HUNTINGDON 3.25
SPITALFIELD (system – Jonjo O’Neill. Handicap hurdles, Huntingdon)
SPITALFIELD is an eight-race maiden, but he wasn’t beaten by far when fourth at Market Rasen on his handicap debut on Boxing Day and his trainer’s handicap hurdlers are always worth a second look at Huntingdon. Since 2016, he’s scored with 17 of the 69 qualifiers (24.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £29.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.35, A/E = 1.64).
HUNTINGDON 4.35
JAX JUNIOR (system – Lucy Wadham bumper runners, second time out)
Since the beginning of 2010, Lucy Wadham has a ten from 57 record with her bumper runners on their second career start for a profit of £54.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The yard’s runners typically do well in at this time of year and three of the last six qualifiers to run in February were winners (11-1, 7-2 and 3-1). The qualifiers to run at Huntingdon have also fared well, with two winners (22-1 and 3-1) as well as three seconds (15-2, 7-2 and 3-1) from 11 runners. JAX JUNIOR clearly needed the experience when a 20-1 11th of 18 at Doncaster on last month’s debut and can be expected to take a big step forward this afternoon.
NEWCASTLE 5.05
RISE HALL (system – top four from the front over 1m2f+ at Newcastle last time out)
It remains difficult to win from the front over distances of 1m2f+ on Newcastle Tapeta surface and horses that run well (defined as finishing in the first four) on the round course often make good bets next time, landing 60 of their 297 starts (20.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £87.81 to a £1 level stake at SP. RISE HALL made the running when only going down by a length and a half in fourth place in a 1m2f Class 5 handicap at Newcastle last time and though competing over the same track and trip tonight, he will hopefully revert to more patient tactics.
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