Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew uses stats and systems to find value bets and shares his latest thoughts below.
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Andrew heads west to the jumps meeting at Ffos Las for his two recommended bets/trades on Thursday, February 1st. Follow his tips this week and all year round on horse racing betting sites with the lowdown on his latest picks below:
FFOS LAS JOCKEYS
GAVIN SHEEHAN has a useful overall record at Ffos Las, scoring on 31 of his 145 mounts (21.4%) against an expected score of 26.25 (A/E = 1.18). His strike-rate improves to 31.9% (15 wins from 47 rides) on heavy going and he looks worth a buy at 32.5 in the Spreadex FFOS LAS JOCKEYS marker. WILLSBURG (1.30), the first of his six rides today, has attracted early support (7-2 from 6-1), as has SPITFIRE GIRL (12-1 from 16-1) in the 2.00. SLIP ROAD could benefit from the first-time cheekpieces in the 2.30 and pick up points, despite facing a tough rival in the shape of hat-trick seeker Tune In A Box, while REGARDE (3.00) is two from three since switched to fences. NO QUARTER ASKED (4.00) and ANOTHER LORD (4.30) complete the list and the first-named, though just one from 28 in his career, has realistic prospects of second place, a position he’s achieved in both starts on heavy going for his current yard including one when 66-1 at today’s venue.
Recommendation: Buy GAVIN SHEEHAN in Ffos Las Jockeys
FFOS LAS 4.30
MUMBLES, the 11-10 favourite with Spreadex at the time of writing, won by a wide margin at Chepstow on his latest assignment but the time was nothing special and this 2m novices’ limited handicap hurdle might prove deeper than the early market suggests. The most interesting each-way play (or buy in the Spreadex 50-30-20-10 market) is the Nigel Hawke-trained 9-1 shot MY GRANNY LILY, who reverts to hurdles after an early fall at Ludlow on her chase debut eight weeks ago. The six-year-old was a big eyecatcher in a 2m mares’ handicap hurdle at Taunton in January of last year, finishing third to course expert Sawpit Sienna despite racing in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. She ran only once more than season, failing to see out 2m3.5f when third at Bangor and ran a similar race on her reappearance when a 20-1 fourth over 2m3f at Warwick. The cut back in trip looks ideal and she’ll handle the very slow ground.
Recommendation: Back MY GRANNY LILY in Ffos Las 4.30
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