Highest UK Grocery Market Share Odds 2024: Tesco lead the way with Morrisons And Waitrose Lag Behind

Tesco is leading the way to be the grocer with the largest market share in 2024 as Morrison’s woes continue.

The market share of UK grocery stores has remained decidedly stable over the last five years, with data from Kantar revealing the three leading chains – Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Asda – have had the lion’s share of the industry since 2017.

Tesco, who at the close of 2023 yielded a UK grocery market share of 27.6%, have failed to dip below 27% since October 2020. This was just two months prior to Sainsbury’s cutting the market share gap with its leading competitor, Tesco, to its lowest deficit over the last five years.

Although there have been very few drastic changes to makeup of the market leaders, a select few grocery chains have seen their market share plummet in recent years.

See how SportsLens odds-compilers expect 2024 to pan out for each retailer.

Highest UK Grocery Market Share Odds 2024

• Tesco 1/8
• Sainsbury’s 14/1
• ASDA 16/1
• Aldi 40/1
• Lidl 66/1
• Morrisons 100/1
• Waitrose 200/1

Which Supermarket Chain Will Have the Highest UK Grocery Market Share in 2024?

UK Grocery Market Share Odds: Morrisons’ Decline to Continue in 2024

With just over 3,000 stores nationwide, coupled with industry-leading logistics and strong brand equity, it comes as no surprise to see Tesco lead the UK grocery market share in recent years.

As the implied probability of our odds suggests, there are little – if any – signs of this dominance ending in 2024.

Therefore, it is perhaps more beneficial to analyse those supermarket chains who have suffered in recent years. Morrisons, who our odds-setter priced as the least likely to be the fastest-growing chain in the UK this year, have seen their market share drop significantly in recent years.

Despite attempts to integrate new customer loyalty schemes of the same vein as Tesco’s popular Clubcard, their market share fell sharply in January 2022 and has continued to do so, dropping 1.2% in that period. In doing so, they dipped below Aldi for the first time ever, who were ranked as the most popular UK supermarket at the tail end of 2023.

Meanwhile, Waitrose continue to operate in a small corner of the UK grocery industry – relatively speaking. Synonymous with more expensive prices, they are struggling to compete with cheaper competitors such as Aldi and Lidl, amid rising interest rates and elevated inflation.

With shoppers tightening their purse strings, they are the least likely to have the highest market share in 2024.